Consumer Dining Expectations Grow as the Year Ends China’s foodservice consumers remained optimistic toward the end of the year. In November, the percentage of consumers who expect to dine out in the next month reached its highest level since July and was even more prominent in Tier 2 cities. This month’s China Consumer Sentiment Study highlights the latest behaviors and attitudes across the foodservice industry. Highlights: Household incomes in November improved better than August and September, especially in Tier 2 cities.  Consumers’ expectations to dine out increased for the second consecutive month. Compared to other segments, foodservice ranked higher in expectations to increase spending. Casual coffee drinking surpassed functional coffee drinking.

The Canadian quick service restaurant (QSR) market is undergoing a significant transformation. Once dominated by major chains, smaller QSR operators are emerging as growth and innovation drivers. Our report explores the growth of global cuisine and the digital advances reshaping the industry. Highlights: Smaller QSR operators are leading unit growth and expanding their footprint more rapidly than major chains. Gen Z and ethnic communities exert considerable influence on foodservice trends, favoring authentic global cuisine and brands aligned with their values. The rise of global cuisine acts as a powerful competitive advantage for smaller chains that offer authentic flavors major chains often struggle to replicate. Digital innovation, including online ordering and digital marketing, gives smaller operators an edge. Smaller chains and independents are mastering the art of on-premises dining experiences, tapping into consumers’ desire for more sociable and unique meal occasions.

In the dynamic world of sports marketing, measuring success goes beyond just tracking ROI. It’s about identifying and aligning with a range of key performance indicators (KPIs) that reflect immediate and long-term impacts. By delving into metrics like brand engagement, audience reach, fan sentiment, and conversion rates, you can gain a comprehensive understanding of your campaign’s effectiveness. Whether it’s the increase in social media followers, the spike in merchandise sales, or the uplift in brand recognition, each KPI tells a unique part of the story. Embrace a holistic approach to measurement to ensure your strategies deliver not just short-term wins, but sustained success.

New horizons in a changing world The Wine & Spirits category has a remarkable opportunity to reimagine its future, not just through short-term excitement but by developing new capabilities and skills for the evolving beverage world. Ananda Roy, Circana’s SVP of Thought Leadership in Europe and CPG Advisor, provides a fresh, independent perspective on the global and European market. His complimentary presentation, which opened the internationally renowned Wine Paris event in February, is available for free download. Thanks to our latest growth insights and advisory on the Wine & Spirits category, the presentation covers: Key strategic dimensions:  Insights on the wine and spirits category, including global performance, key segments, innovation, pricing, premiumisation, private label, and sustainability. 6 specific strategic options:  Strategies to disrupt the category code, making it aspirational and ready for a changing world. New Horizons:  A 5-step process to achieve future growth ahead of the category. In an environment of hundreds of ideas from brand building, sustainability, low/no alcohol and emerging markets; the presentation closes on a tangible strategic logic that ties it all together.

SUMMARY Americans are ready to get festive this year at Thanksgiving. Big celebrations are back, with hosts planning an average of nearly eight guests. And 76% of respondents to a new IRI survey report that they’ll return to their pre-pandemic Thanksgiving celebration trends. The bad news is that the festivities could gobble gobble up some savings too, with costs of the traditional Thanksgiving meal up an estimated 13.5% over a year ago. IRI’s new Thanksgiving Tracker shares the latest data on consumer plans for the holiday as people balance their desire to return to normalcy with the pressures of ongoing high food inflation. Highlights Gen Z and millennials under age 32 who plan to host will average 9.8 guests, more than the overall average of 7.4 people. More shoppers say they’ll start their Thanksgiving shopping earlier than usual due to inflation. 38% of shoppers say they expect to pay more for Thanksgiving groceries this year but will still buy the same amount. The run-up to Thanksgiving boosts sales considerably for foods across many categories. Read Report

SUMMARY Food and beverage inflation continued in October, up 1.4% over September and 13.3% versus year ago (YA). Inflation in the perimeter departments (including produce and deli) has moderated to 8.4% versus YA, while center-store inflation continues its rapid rise, now up 14.9% versus YA. IRI’s latest Inflation Tracker deck shares all the details on the latest inflationary trends, their impact on consumer behavior and their effects on Halloween and Thanksgiving celebrations . HIGHLIGHTS Inflation varies significantly across the store. Fresh meat and seafood are up just 4.5% versus year ago (YA) and alcohol is up just 5.5%, while frozen foods are up 18.4%. Consumers are responding to rising prices by reducing their consumption in some segments more than others. Volumes are down over 10% in frozen poultry, deli service lunchmeat, frozen dinners and shelf-stable dinners. Seasonal Halloween candy prices are up 13.5% versus YA and volumes down 2.0%. Price inflation for the Thanksgiving meal is up 13.7% versus YA, driven by high inflation for pies (19.6%) and side dishes (18.8%) and by more moderate 9.7% inflation for protein. Read Report

SUMMARY HOW TO OPTIMIZE YOUR SUPPLY CHAIN FOR FLEXIBILITY The past few years have brought unprecedented supply chain disruptions that have profoundly affected manufacturers, retailers and consumers alike. As many companies seek to diversify their supply chains for greater resiliency, these efforts are not without their own risks. But one risk-free approach offers guaranteed results in any scenario: optimizing the last mile of your logistical supply chain for the ultimate in efficiency and agility. An IRI report shares the four key steps to succeeding in this strategy to find and fix inventory problems and avoid shelf disruptions. Learn these essential approaches that can help keep your customers happy and grow your market share — no matter what supply chain disruption hits us next. Highlights Smarter tactical management of the end of your supply chain can find inventory problems and help you recover the 5 to 8% of sales that would otherwise be lost to out-of-stocks. Addressing on-shelf availability issues can help you grow sales by 3 to 5% every year. Nearly 50% of shoppers won’t end up purchasing your product if they don’t find it on shelf, so avoiding shelf disruptions is critical. Day-to-day supply chain excellence depends upon balancing ongoing inventory well, maximizing on-shelf availability, optimizing store operations by creating labor efficiencies and prioritizing high-opportunity shelf actions, and maximizing the effectiveness of promos, new product introductions and seasonal events.

SUMMARY Even in the most stable times, demand forecasting involves some uncertainty. But our current environment is characterized by more unpredictability than ever before — and requires a new approach. The days when CPGs could put together a demand forecast and then not worry about planning for another 12 months are gone. An IRI report looks at the current landscape and highlights 10 major emerging trends that are affecting how brands need to think about their current scenario planning. It also suggests a “best way forward” using technology and data to inform better long-term planning and short-term decision-making. Highlights Consumers have been showing lower price sensitivity in response to inflation compared to historical norms but could crack if current inflationary trends continue. We are seeing a bifurcation in consumer behavior, with low-income shoppers buying less and shifting to value channels while higher-income shoppers remain open to premiumization. Changing macroeconomic conditions, durable work-from-home trends, lasting supply chain issues, shifts in e-commerce behavior and changes in media effectiveness are just a few factors that must be accounted for in scenario planning. It’s important to look back at longitudinal sales data to understand the impact of past decisions on sales, and also to revise forecasts in real time to respond to fast-changing shifts in consumer behavior.

SUMMARY Food and beverage inflation continued in September, up 1.0% over August and 13.3% versus year ago. As inflation moderates in some perimeter categories, center-store inflation continues to rise. An IRI report shares all the details on the latest inflationary trends and how they are affecting consumer behaviors as well as the price-pack levers that food manufacturers are using. HIGHLIGHTS Inflation varies significantly across the store. Alcohol is up just 4.2% versus year ago, while dairy is up 19.6%. Consumers have reduced consumption by more than 10% in categories such as deli service lunchmeat, fresh finfish, frozen dinners and shelf-stable dinners due to significant price increases. Shoppers are buying larger pack sizes for a better value, while also making more quick shopping trips to “cherry-pick” the best deals. Read Report

SUMMARY Small and medium-sized businesses (SMBs) face real challenges as they make fall media plans. Foremost among them is the high cost of digital ad buys right now, a problem exacerbated by midterm election ads and competition from deeper-pocketed competitors ramping up their holiday advertising. This IRI report provides information on how SMBs can navigate this environment to more successfully — and affordably — market their products and services by harnessing the power of purchase-based audience targeting. Highlights In a landscape of higher media costs, SMBs should not stop advertising, but they do need to make every dollar work harder. Learn the pros and cons of platforms that include programmatic ads, connected TV, paid social posts, Google Ads, cost-per-click display ads and in-store activation options. Case studies examine how a confection manufacturer and a cereal maker used purchase-based audiences and cost-effective digital ads for successful holiday campaigns. This approach enabled these budget-strapped companies to achieve a higher return on advertising spend (ROAS) and improved sales lift.

SUMMARY Brands need accurate insights on retail performance at the product level to truly understand consumer purchasing behavior and make better business decisions. And this includes accurate information on granular product attributes like product size, flavor, pack size and other details. But you can’t get this information — or accurate below-the-brand insights — from receipts alone. Or from panels that rely solely upon them. This IRI brief explains the problems with attempting to get reliable below-the-brand insights from a stand-alone receipt panel and provides an alternative approach that will give you insights without compromise. Highlights Across all U.S. brick-and-mortar retailers, fewer than 50% of all transaction receipts include UPC-level details. And many include product information that is much more limited. This can lead receipt panel-only providers to use a “cherry-pick” approach that overemphasizes receipts that contain more detailed product information, skewing results. A better approach is to use a receipt panel for insights down to the brand level combined with a scan panel that provides accurate UPC item-level data for below-the-brand insights.

SUMMARY Chocolates and candies with reduced sugar, no sugar or no added sugar are growing in both dollar and volume growth more than their traditional counterparts. Shoppers who buy them also have an overall higher basket ring than buyers of traditional candies. An IRI report provides a detailed overview of the sugar-free chocolate and candy market and highlights the best opportunities to make the most of this growing trend in confections and across food and beverage categories. Read it to learn the best channel, assortment, promotional, in-store and e-commerce opportunities to sweeten your profits. Highlights More than 40% of consumers now look for low-sugar products. Sugar-free candy and chocolate commands a significant price premium over their full-sugar counterparts. Sugar-free non-chocolate shoppers are less sensitive to price. More than 90% of sugar-free candy is sold through the food, drug and mass channels. Sales are not growing in the dollar and club channels, pointing to a growth opportunity in those channels. Larger product assortments and new, innovative products are helping to boost sales of sugar-free chocolate. Innovation should continue, particularly for sugar-free non-chocolate candy offerings. Opportunities exist to promote sugar-free candy throughout the year (not just during holidays) and to create more opportunities for in-store and online impulse purchases.

SUMMARY Consumer confidence is dipping. Inflation in the basic necessities of food, shelter and energy have been sky-high. And people are also allocating more of their income to home payments as personal savings rates decline and credit-card balances grow. These factors may foretell an economic downturn that could look much different than prior recessions. This new report from IRI and RBC Capital Markets looks at current trends from the CPG retail perspective and compares them to the 2008 recession to reveal the lessons that CPG manufacturers and retailers can leverage for success in today’s environment. It also examines the playbook that worked for industry giants such as Coca-Cola and Procter & Gamble in the last recession. And it highlights the investments, innovations, revenue management levers, marketing tactics and planning approaches that should be priorities for CPG players today. Much of this information was presented in IRI’s “Driving CPG Growth Through an Economic Downturn” webinar. A webinar replay is available here .

SUMMARY Sales of sustainably marketed products are growing 2.7 times faster than conventional products. They’re also propelling a third of overall CPG growth, despite their premium pricing in today’s inflationary environment. Research by IRI and the NYU Stern Center for Sustainable Business (CSB) features new survey data on consumer perceptions and leverages CSB’s Sustainable Market Share Index™ to examine how sustainability drives consumer CPG product choices. Read it to learn the sustainability attributes that matter most today and the packaging, marketing, signage and innovation tactics that can help brands and retailers capitalize on them effectively. Highlights 77% of consumers believe sustainability is important when selecting products to buy, up from 69% in 2021. The top reason consumers say they buy sustainable products is for their environmental impact (44% of those surveyed), followed by the availability of more sustainable options (40%). Sustainably marketed products can command price premiums over their conventional counterparts that can range from 8% to 130%. 93% of consumers have maintained or increased their sustainable purchase habits over the past year. Roughly 50% of all new products in 2021 were sustainable, up 20 percentage points from 2017. 27% of shoppers — and 32% of Gen Z and millennials — seek out retailers that carry sustainable products, indicating a shopper preference that is likely to endure and increase over time.