Circana's Demand Signals report provides a comprehensive picture of how shifting consumer behavior impacts the U.S. consumer packaged goods sector. Gain timely, data-backed insights that help support critical business decisions.

Key highlights from this period's report: ​

• Inflation and employment remain stable, while consumer confidence fluctuates at low levels: Consumer confidence declined in early August after two months of improvement, remaining at low levels and continuing to fluctuate with the latest news and geopolitical developments. July CPI inflation eased to 3.4%, and gas prices were relatively stable through mid-August, well below May peaks. However, year-ahead consumer inflation expectations rose to 4.3% in August, signaling continued concern about future costs. Labor market conditions were stable, with unemployment at 4.1% in July.

• Volume/units continue to decline as consumers rationalize spending: Retail F&B volume declined -1.1% in the latest four weeks, with an already soft demand environment weighed down further by steep produce declines related to food safety concerns. Excluding produce, volume declined -0.5%, still challenged but at more steady levels. Non-Food CPG units were down -1.9%, consistent with recent trends. Shoppers continue to carefully manage budgets, often reducing quantities or pack sizes rather than sacrificing preferred brands and products. Ongoing pressure on household budgets, including reduced SNAP benefits and depleted savings, is likely to keep consumer spending disciplined.

• Heightened food safety concerns weigh on produce sales: Produce volume declined -7.4% over the latest four weeks, driven by a severe and still largely unrecovered -28% drop in the salads and leafy greens category following the Cyclospora outbreak linked to lettuce in early July. Amplified attention on food safety, alongside more recent headlines involving jalapeños, eggs, and frozen blueberries, appears to be contributing to a modest halo effect across the broader produce department.

• Overall price growth eases, though pockets of accelerating inflation persist: Retail F&B price/mix growth eased to 1.9%, with inflation moderating across both perishables and center store. The slowdown was driven in part by key commodity-driven categories, including beef, coffee, and chocolate, where prices remain elevated but are now lapping stronger inflation levels from a year ago. Despite moderation in overall Retail F&B inflation, 24% of subcategories continue to experience accelerating price growth, though that is down from 43% of subcategories in late 2025.

Non-Food CPG price/mix growth was 4.0% in the latest four weeks, broadly in line with year-to-date trends, with favorable product mix continuing to drive growth and higher inflation largely concentrated in beauty and select kitchen categories.