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Featured Insight
2025 U.S. Holiday Purchase Intentions Report
The 2025 holiday retail season will be defined by practicality, early planning, and digital convenience. Our report, 2025 U.S. Holiday Purchase Intentions, reveals what’s driving consumer behavior — from price sensitivity and mobile shopping to social media influence and gifting trends.
Holiday Consumer Shopping Predictions
As experts on consumer behavior data, Circana provides landmark insights into how consumer spending habits shift from year to year across industries and categories based on a combination of consumer panel surveys, our proprietary receipt panel data, and POS sales data from partnered retailers. Through this data, we are able to digest previous consumer trends and forecast future shifts in spending patterns. Our data has shown that retailers and brands need to adopt nimble strategies. Getting locked into purely historical perspectives ignores how consumers are changing, as well as external factors that impact consumer behavior.
Press Releases
Consumers have indicated that the 2025 holiday shopping season may bring an increase in earlier retail sales compared to last year. According to the annual holiday purchase intentions consumer survey from Circana™, 44% of consumers said they plan on starting their shopping earlier in the season than they normally would. More holiday shoppers plan to get started on their purchases before Thanksgiving than last year.
Press Releases
The U.S. consumer, and their willingness to absorb tariffs, will be the key factor shaping Q4 performance. The toy industry has a unique advantage and tends to be resilient in turbulent times as toys serve as emotional anchors for families, offering joy and a welcome distraction in our lives. The industry also benefits from trends like adult self-gifting, nostalgia, and digital wellness – factors that are expected to influence holiday purchases.
Press Releases
These cookbook subject trends suggest that consumers are seeking an accessible and personalized home baking experience that balances indulgence with practicality. People are baking for pleasure and for skill-building while balancing wellness and dietary requirements. Emotional fulfillment and creating meaningful experiences also play a role.
Press Releases
The volatility of consumers is evident in their feelings about the holiday shopping season, which means the flow of the 2025 holiday shopping season will be less predictable. While consumer spending to date has demonstrated resilience, final retail holiday results will be greatly influenced by the timing of everything from promotions to the news of the day.
Press Releases
Retail spending is holding steady, as the consumer continues to demonstrate their resilience, but the ways in which they are making purchases is changing rapidly. When core retail shopping periods become altered, it becomes clear that things are out of sync between retail and the consumer.
How Has Consumer Shopping Around the Holidays Changed in 2025?
Seasonal Timelines for Shopping Are Shifting
Circana’s consumer behavior tracking has shown that the timelines of when shoppers purchase seasonal items are spreading further outside of traditional seasonal lines. While retail spending is holding steady, the ways consumers are spending are changing dramatically. Overreliance on historical data or traditional seasonal timelines and strategies risks missing your consumers' current purchasing behavior.
Consumers Are More Budget-Conscious and Are Shifting Priorities.
External factors like tariffs and inflation are vastly impacting how consumers view essentials over luxury, as well as how they prioritize value. For example, Circana’s verified purchase data showed how consumers are finding value by buying larger sizes and packs while individual unit sales dipped. Within these trends are opportunities for retailers and manufacturers to align their product offerings and marketing strategies to consumers who are prioritizing value.
Consumers Seek Convenience and Make Impulse Purchases
Consumers are leaning more into convenience when shopping, especially in regard to e-commerce. Circana’s market data has shown that in the 12 months ending June 2025, e-commerce accounted for 26% of total retail dollar sales and 54% of dollar growth. Across retail categories, including CPGs, general merchandise, and food and beverage saw increases in YoY e-commerce dollar sales. Developing strong e-commerce strategies and understanding how/where your consumers are shopping will be essential to holiday retail performance.
How To Adjust Retailer Strategies Based on Current Holiday Shopping Behaviors
Continually Evaluate Shopping Timing and Promotional Strategies
Retailers are running promotions more frequently and outside of traditional schedules and seasonal timelines. “Black Friday in July” and similar promotions can stand out to consumers and address their specific purchase behaviors and need states. From a competitive standpoint, you need to understand when and how deep other retailers are running their promotions.
Monitor Pricing, Demand and Replenishment Rates Closely
Consumers' shifting behaviors are leading to faster product lifecycles. “Reorder Monday” is not fast enough anymore. Replenishment rates and product lifecycles need to be understood through data-driven forecasting methods. What was in today can be forgotten in only a few days, so it is essential to continuously monitor and adjust your strategy based on key performance metrics.
Retail Innovation in Marketing and Products Drives Demand
There are significant opportunities in new product features and providing enhanced benefits to consumers. Manufacturers and retailers need to understand their consumers’ needs on an individual attribute level to ensure that both products and marketing efforts meet consumers where they are. Macroeconomic trends are pushing more consumers into evaluating products, looking for new brands, and seeking items that directly satisfy their specific needs.
Featured Solution
Circana’s Complete Consumer Solution
Understand How Your Consumers Are Shopping
Circana’s Consumer Solutions integrate signals from your sales data alongside our proprietary panel data to gather valuable insights into how your consumers are shopping. Through our solutions, you can build data-driven strategies across product development and marketing strategy that are fine-tuned to your consumers’ needs and buying behavior.
