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November Retail Sales Remained Steady but Critical Holiday Shopping Weeks Lack Momentum, Reports Circana

By

Marshal Cohen

Marshal Cohen

Dec 16, 2025

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Category

Overall retail spending held steady in November, with 1% growth and flat unit demand, but spending on necessities like food continues to take priority, and elevated prices are eroding the consumer’s discretionary spending ability. In the combined four weeks ending Nov. 29, 2025, overall U.S. retail sales revenue grew 1%, while unit demand remained flat once again compared to the same time in 2024. Retail food and beverage sales revenue rose 2%, and unit sales were up 1%. Non-edible consumer pack

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  • Writer: Marshal Cohen
    Marshal Cohen
  • 5 hours ago
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Combined, Black Friday Week and Cyber Week resulted in a 2% dollar and nearly 5% unit decline from last year.


CHICAGO, Dec. 16, 2025 — Overall retail spending held steady in November, with 1% growth and flat unit demand, but spending on necessities like food continues to take priority, and elevated prices are eroding the consumer’s discretionary spending ability. In the combined four weeks ending Nov. 29, 2025, overall U.S. retail sales revenue grew 1%, while unit demand remained flat once again compared to the same time in 2024. Retail food and beverage sales revenue rose 2%, and unit sales were up 1%. Non-edible consumer packaged goods dollars were up 1%, while unit sales declined 1%. Discretionary general merchandise retail dollar sales declined 2%, and unit demand fell 4% compared to the same period a year ago, according to Circana, LLC.


“Consumer prioritization is resulting in very specific pockets of growth at deeper levels within retail that are falling short of creating broader momentum,” said Marshal Cohen, chief retail industry advisor for Circana. “Flat discretionary general merchandise sales so far in the fourth quarter of 2025 are revealing the pressure on consumer’s wallets, as well as the diminished impact of the peak holiday shopping weeks.”


November closed out with the week of Black Friday, which brought a nearly 3% decline in dollar sales of discretionary general merchandise and a 5% decline in units. Cyber Week kicked off December with a dollar sales decline of 1.3% and units falling 4.4%. Combined, the two shopping weeks ending Dec. 6, 2025, resulted in a 2% dollar decline and a nearly 5% unit drop from last year.


The very specific pockets of growth at the category level means very few industries are outperforming last year’s results thus far. The list of winning categories was similar for both Black Friday and Cyber Monday weeks, including categories like toy building sets, beauty products, and arts and crafts products, demonstrating how the two events and the roles of physical stores and e-commerce are blending when it comes to promotions, timing, and product focus. Instead of seeking out the hot new items, newness is coming from lifestyle classification — gifting products related to an individual’s hobbies and interests. 


“The distinction between Black Friday and Cyber Monday has been lost — shopping during this holiday season has become even less about coveting the deal and more about curating ideas around what to give as gifts,” said Cohen. “Uniqueness, innovation, convenience, and socialization are now all critical to the formula for holiday selling. This is a trend that will continue into 2026 and needs to be ingrained in holiday 2026 planning.” 


About Circana 

Circana is a leader in providing technology, AI, and data to fast-moving consumer packaged goods companies, durables manufacturers, and retailers seeking to optimize their businesses. Circana’s predictive analytics and technology empower clients to measure their market share, understand the underlying consumer behavior driving it, and accelerate their growth. Circana’s Liquid Data® technology platform is powered by an expansive, high-quality data set, and intelligent algorithms trained on six decades of domain expertise. With Circana, clients can take immediate action to future-proof and evolve their growth strategies amid an increasingly complex, fast-paced, and ever-changing economy.   

 

Contact: 

Janine Marshall 

 

 

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About the author

Marshal Cohen is a nationally known expert on consumer behavior and the retail industry. He has followed retail trends for more than 30 years at Circana (formerly The NPD Group) and as the head of leading fashion and apparel manufacturers and major retailers.


As part of his work at Circana, Marshal leads many top firms in long-range and strategic planning sessions. He often utilizes motivational presentations to help launch corporate goals and kick-off meetings. Marshal is the author of two books, “Why Customers Do What They Do” (2006) and “Buy Me! How to Get Customers to Choose Your Products and Ignore the Rest” (2010).


In addition to his duties at Circana, Marshal is a member of several boards of directors and was appointed to the Cotton Board and American Apparel and Footwear Association (AAFA). He is also a guest professor at North Carolina State University’s Wilson College of Textiles, where he introduces students and faculty to techniques for analyzing and applying data. Marshal has been a guest lecturer at the Wharton School of Business, the Fashion Institute of Technology, and Savannah College of Art and Design. He has also twice been named to the Footwear News Power 100 list.


Marshal is a regular contributor to many major media outlets. He is frequently quoted in publications like The Wall Street Journal, The New York Times, and Women’s Wear Daily. Additionally, he appears on various television news programs, including “Today,” “Good Morning America,” and “CBS Sunday Morning,” and he has been a regular guest on Bloomberg TV and Radio. He is also a sought-after speaker at key industry events such as MAGIC, The Fairchild CEO Summits, The National Retail Federation’s (NRF) Annual Convention, and The American Apparel and Footwear Association’s (AAFA) Annual Executive Summit. Marshal was the only industry expert who appeared in the documentary, “God Save my Shoes,” produced by Caid Productions.


Marshal has held a variety of positions analyzing and interpreting Circana’s uniquely combined consumer and point-of-sale tracking services for the apparel, footwear, accessories, and sports industries. His career began in the training program at Bloomingdale’s, where he worked his way up to merchandise manager. From there, he became president of WilliWear and subsequently president of Stanley Blacker. He was also founder, owner, and president of Motive Marketing Group.


To reach Marshal Cohen for commentary, please email janine.marshall@circana.com.


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