- Sally Lyons Wyatt
- Jul 29
- 2 min read
Circana's Demand Signals report provides a comprehensive picture of how shifting consumer behavior impacts the U.S. consumer packaged goods sector. Gain timely, data-backed insights that help support critical business decisions.
Key highlights from this period's report:
Macro pressures persist, despite modest improvement in early July: Consumer confidence and inflation improved in early July, with lower gas prices providing some temporary relief. However, looking ahead, recent geopolitical tensions could weigh on sentiment with gas prices climbing again, surpassing $4/gallon in the latest weeks. Longer-term challenges remain, including reduced SNAP benefits and pressured savings, suggesting consumers are likely to maintain a disciplined approach to spending.
Tighter SNAP eligibility requirements are reducing program participation, resulting in an estimated $10 billion reduction in EBT funds in 2026 and further increasing financial pressure on affected households.
Consumers continue to rationalize CPG spending amid ongoing financial pressures: Spending remains constrained across CPG, with Retail F&B volume down -0.6% and Non-Food CPG units down -2.6% in the latest four weeks. Recent trends are largely unchanged from Q2 and remain below those seen earlier in the year.
Circana expects volume trends to remain tight as consumers enter a phase of spending rationalization, making fewer, more intentional purchases while continuing to prioritize products that deliver the outcomes they seek, such as wellness, relevance, and quality.
Price growth moderates slightly in latest period: Price/mix growth in Retail F&B held at 2.6% in the latest four weeks. Coffee, chocolate, and beef prices remain elevated, although inflation rates for coffee and beef are beginning to moderate as comparisons now lap prior-year price increases. Positive product mix shifts continued to contribute 1.1 ppts of the 2.6% price/mix growth, with underlying item price inflation accounting for the remaining 1.5 ppts.
Non-Food CPG price/mix growth was 4.7% in the latest four weeks, slowing slightly from prior periods. Higher item price growth remains in select spaces, such as cosmetics and aluminum foil, but positive product mix shifts continue to be the primary driver of Non-Food price/mix growth.
