Circana's Demand Signals report provides a comprehensive picture of how shifting consumer behavior impacts the U.S. consumer packaged goods sector. Gain timely, data-backed insights that help support critical business decisions.

Key highlights from this period's report: 

• Consumer strain intensifies: Consumers are increasingly stretched as new pressures accumulate. The personal savings rate fell to 2.6% in April, the lowest since 2022, and credit reliance grows. Confidence was at historical lows in May, gas prices remained high, and SNAP participation was down.

• Units tightened, dollars positive: Despite pressures, dollar growth across retail remains positive; however, volume and/or units tightens further as consumers manage spend with thoughtful choices. While overall spending remains up year over year, recent softening may signal more cautious behavior and heightened downside risk to future spending should recent pressures continue.

  
  

Retail Food & Beverage​

• Volume softens for a second consecutive period, following stronger start to the year: Retail F&B volume declined -0.7% in the latest four weeks, continuing declines across the latest eight weeks. After a stronger first quarter, volumes are flat year-to-date consistent with Circana’s outlook. Circana continues to expect flat volume trends for 2026. Continuation of recent pressures like gas prices may extend this tightness.

• Prolonged gas price pressure may be starting to test consumer resilience: With average gas prices above $4 for two months, early consumer resilience may be giving way to behavioral shifts. Convenience channel sales dipped -2% in the latest four weeks following flat performance earlier in the year—a potential signal that consumers may be adjusting spending habits as elevated prices persist.

• Price growth largely steady, but slight perimeter uptick: Price/mix growth ticked up slightly to 2.5% in the latest four weeks, with the recent acceleration driven by the perimeter, particularly fresh vegetables. Center store price growth remains high but has been more stable in recent periods.

  
  

Non-Food CPG​

• Unit declines worsen, but dollars remain up: Unit trends worsened to -3.6% and dollar growth slowed to 0.8% in the latest four weeks. Momentum is slowing as shoppers cut back across most non-food segments. Only more need-based segments like personal health and pet food are sustaining unit growth, highlighting more disciplined consumer behavior.

• Consumers stick to preferred brands: Even as consumers pull back on overall units, they continue to favor premium brands tied to quality, convenience, and health. Private label and value tiers continue to lose share in 2026.

• Price/mix growth remains elevated: Non-Food CPG price/mix growth was 4.6% in the latest four weeks, remaining well above year-ago levels (2.1% in 2025), driven by combination of true price increases and premium mix shifts.