Nearly half of holiday shoppers plan to start their gift-buying before Thanksgiving, but Black Friday deals still hold significant appeal for almost a quarter of consumers

CHICAGO, November 6, 2025 — Consumers have indicated that the 2025 holiday shopping season may bring an increase in earlier retail sales compared to last year. According to the annual holiday purchase intentions consumer survey from Circana™, 44% of consumers said they plan on starting their shopping earlier in the season than they normally would. More holiday shoppers plan to get started on their purchases before Thanksgiving than last year.  

“Today’s consumer is more focused on planning and prioritizing on their quest for value,” said Marshal Cohen, chief retail advisor for Circana. “Getting an earlier start on holiday shopping gives them more control and choice when it comes to making a purchase decision, rather than feeling the pressure of filling a last-minute need.”

Intentions to start holiday shopping before Thanksgiving have returned to the level of those shared ahead of the 2023 holiday season (47.6%), an increase from last year’s dip to 44.8%. Intentions for mid-season (Thanksgiving, Black Friday, Thanksgiving weekend, and Cyber Monday) and late-season shopping starts both declined. However, those last-minute shoppers who plan on waiting until early December or later to start their holiday shopping is at the lowest level in four years (19.2%).

While the majority of consumers plan on starting their holiday shopping early in the season, 19% have their sights set on Black Friday as their holiday shopping kickoff day. In 2024, Black Friday maintained its position as the top shopping day in Q4 across both physical and digital retail. Again this year, Black Friday was identified by the largest share of consumers (23%) as the time they expect to find the best deals for holiday shopping. 

Promotions will have a more significant influence on holiday shopping this year, with 37% of holiday shoppers indicating that they will buy more items that are on sale or promotion to save money. However, early season promotions exposed a by-product of expected sales events: The anticipation of such promotional periods triggers a wait-and-see mode among shoppers that creates purchasing pullback in advance of the promotion itself.

“Even with lower prices, consumers have become less impulsive – doubling down on their ‘need now, buy now’ mindset,” added Cohen. “Marketers need to continue to assess ways to achieve dynamic success with consumers by making their brand, their store, a destination that hits the mark on product and value at the right time.”

About Circana 

Circana is a leader in providing technology, AI, and data to fast-moving consumer packaged goods companies, durables manufacturers, and retailers seeking to optimize their businesses. Circana’s predictive analytics and technology empower clients to measure their market share, understand the underlying consumer behavior driving it, and accelerate their growth. Circana’s Liquid Data^® technology platform is powered by an expansive, high-quality data set, and intelligent algorithms trained on six decades of domain expertise. With Circana, clients can take immediate action to future-proof and evolve their growth strategies amid an increasingly complex, fast-paced, and ever-changing economy.   

Contact: 

Janine Marshall 

janine.marshall@circana.com