Nominal revenue gains in October 2025 are up against last year’s preelection declines

CHICAGO, Nov. 14, 2025 — U.S. consumers continue to demonstrate their resiliency and flexibility in navigating the challenges facing them. However, that resiliency includes spending more while being able to afford and get less. In the combined four weeks ending Nov. 1, 2025, consumer spending prioritization remained ever present, helping to bring 2% growth to overall U.S. retail sales revenue, while unit demand remained flat during the four weeks of November compared to the same time in 2024, according to Circana, LLC.

“Consumers appear nimble as they bend and stretch their ability to purchase amid an abundance of headwinds hitting their wallets,” said Marshal Cohen, chief retail industry advisor for Circana. “But the struggle to exceed last October’s soft comps resulting from pre-election distraction makes it clear that their resiliency is being tested heading into the core holiday shopping period.”

Examination of each retail industry provides insight into the consumer’s continued prioritization of spending on food over more discretionary purchases. Retail food and beverage sales revenue was up 3%, and unit sales were up 1%. Nonedible consumer packaged goods dollars were up 1%, while unit sales declined 2%. Discretionary general merchandise retail dollar sales declined 1%, and unit demand fell 4% compared to the same period a year ago. 

Declines in discretionary spending and unit demand as the holiday shopping season gets underway are an indication of the current consumer volatility, particularly up against last year’s early season declines. To date, through the week ending Nov. 8, fourth-quarter 2025 sales revenue of discretionary general merchandise is down 1% from this time last year, and unit demand is down 3%. Compared to two years ago, discretionary general merchandise sales for this period are down 10% in dollars and 9% in units. 

The stage is set for a rocky start to the holiday shopping season. As stated in Circana’s 2025 Holiday Purchase Intentions study, holiday spending is projected to be between a 1% decline and 2% increase compared to last year, with unit declines falling by as much as 2.5% during the traditional November and December shopping period.

“The holiday season does not bring more money into consumers’ pockets, which means pockets of retail growth will not be robust,” said Cohen. “Early shopping behavior will influence the balance of the holiday season, so marketers need to put their best foot forward now in order to capture their share of a discerning market.” 

About Circana 

Circana is a leader in providing technology, AI, and data to fast-moving consumer packaged goods companies, durables manufacturers, and retailers seeking to optimize their businesses. Circana’s predictive analytics and technology empower clients to measure their market share, understand the underlying consumer behavior driving it, and accelerate their growth. Circana’s Liquid Data^® technology platform is powered by an expansive, high-quality data set, and intelligent algorithms trained on six decades of domain expertise. With Circana, clients can take immediate action to future-proof and evolve their growth strategies amid an increasingly complex, fast-paced, and ever-changing economy.   

Contact: 

Janine Marshall 

janine.marshall@circana.com