Value, timing, and tariffs take center stage this holiday shopping season

CHICAGO – Nov. 3, 2025 – The U.S. toy industry posted a solid performance through the third quarter of 2025, signaling a return to growth after two years of stagnation. January through September sales posted a +7% dollar increase over the same period last year, according to Circana, LLC, as average selling price (ASP) climbed +4% and units sold grew by +3%.

Industry growth is largely being driven by collectible toys (+33%) and licensed toys (+14%). Strategic trading card games, sports trading cards, and action figure collectibles led the charge for collectibles; sports, witches and wizards, animals, movies, and video games were the big licensing themes. 

Seven of the 11 supercategories posted dollar growth, with six of them also showing unit growth. Games/Puzzles grew the fastest, with Pokémon as the main driver of growth. This was followed by Explorative & Other Toys, where sports trading cards continue increasing sales, and Building Sets, where Formula 1 was the biggest contributor to growth. The industry’s steepest declines came from Outdoor & Sports Toys, Plush, and Dolls. 

Considering what toys might be hot for the holiday season, below is a list of the top selling new toys by supercategory in September 2025:

As the industry heads into the critical holiday season, Circana’s consumer insights from its newly released annual Holiday Purchase Intentions study suggest a complex retail landscape shaped by economic pressures, shifting shopping behaviors, and tariff-related pricing adjustments. Overall holiday spending is expected to be similar to last year’s results, falling between a 1% decline and 2% growth in dollars. However, unit sales may fall by as much as 2.5% during the traditional November and December holiday shopping period.

Juli Lennett, vice president and toy industry advisor at Circana, shares findings that especially relate to the toy industry:

• Fewer consumers plan to wait until December to shop. With consumers shopping earlier, manufacturers and retailers must act quickly to capture spending before budgets are exhausted.

• Over 80% of holiday shoppers expect prices to be higher this year. Price concerns create an opportunity for brands to prompt earlier shopping and a focus on affordability and availability to secure sales.

• Consumers plan to spend 3% more this holiday season, yet 31% say they’ll buy fewer items. Shoppers are prioritizing value and meaningful purchases, making affordable indulgences and practical gifts top-of-mind.

• Economic headlines, social media influence, and evolving consumer values are shaping shopping behavior. Connecting through nostalgia, storytelling, and influencer campaigns can drive emotional engagement and sales.

“The U.S. consumer, and their willingness to absorb tariffs, will be the key factor shaping Q4 performance,” said Lennett. “The toy industry has a unique advantage and tends to be resilient in turbulent times as toys serve as emotional anchors for families, offering joy and a welcome distraction in our lives. The industry also benefits from trends like adult self-gifting, nostalgia, and digital wellness – factors that are expected to influence holiday purchases.”