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- US Office Supplies Industry Revenue Expected to See Slight Decline in 2023
Total revenue for the industry will remain above pre-pandemic levels Port Washington, NY, December 19, 2022 – According to The NPD Group, U.S. office supplies industry revenue in 2023 is expected to decline 1% year over year but remain 7% above pre-pandemic (2019) sales (excluding storage categories as well as janitorial and breakroom supplies). In fact, NPD’s latest Future of Office Supplies forecast reveals industry revenue will remain above 2019 totals through the end of the forecast period in 2025. Following the 7% increase in industry average sales prices (ASP) seen in 2022, ASPs will begin to decline next year, contributing to the slight dip in the forecasted revenue. Unit sales, however, are expected to remain flat in the year ahead, an improvement from declines in 2022. Anticipated areas of unit sales growth in 2023 are writing instruments, coloring & art, and presentation & reference. “Continued innovation will be key to uncovering opportunity for players in the office supplies industry. Evolution related to product features, creative product use-case methods, or category revitalization through new designs or target market segments will help drive category growth,” said Tia Frapolli, president of NPD’s Office Supplies practice. “While technology’s impact on office supplies is often mentioned, 75% of consumers surveyed said they plan to purchase the same or more supplies despite the growing use of technology. This indicates unit sales for school supplies should remain relatively stable over time.”
- 2022 Holiday Season Spending Lags Entering Final Stretch, Reports NPD
Ahead of Super Saturday, fourth quarter retail revenue is 6% below 2021 levels Port Washington, N.Y., December 16, 2022 – The first two weeks of December did not bring much holiday cheer after a lackluster Black Friday and generally disappointing November results. U.S. discretionary general merchandise sales revenue fell over 2 percentage points over Cyber Week (week ending December 3) and 5% the following week, according to U.S. retailer point-of-sale information collected by The NPD Group . Fourth quarter retail sales revenue through December 10 is 6% below 2021 results, and unit sales are down 10%. “The traditional feeling of spirited chaos is missing from retail this holiday season, and not in a good way,” said Marshal Cohen , chief retail industry advisor for NPD. “With just weeks to go in the holiday shopping season, momentum and the urgency to shop is still missing, as the consumer’s need to prioritize higher-priced food is impeding discretionary spending.” While discretionary spending continues to exceed pre-pandemic results, the current economic conditions have made it increasingly difficult to meet the elevated spending levels of the past two years. In order for fourth-quarter sales revenue to break even with last year, the final three weeks of 2022 will need to outperform last year by 5%. All eyes are on Super Saturday because it typically ranks as the second highest grossing week of the fourth quarter. In 2021, Super Saturday grew 15% compared to the prior week. Ahead of this holiday shopping season, some consumers indicated they had their eyes on late-season activity, with 4% planning to wait until the last minute to even begin their holiday shopping, and 8% identifying the week before Christmas as the time they felt they would get the best deals. “Retailers and manufacturers should be prepared for the trend of spread-out sales to continue through the end of the season, with an early Super Saturday followed by nearly a full week of shopping days,” Cohen said. “Consumers have become accustomed to the frequent discounts they’ve enjoyed since October, so deeper discounts are now necessary to incentivize spending in these final holiday weeks, particularly among the last-minute shoppers.” #Holiday
- Holiday Season Prestige Fragrance Sales Up 4% in the US, NPD Reports
Year-over-year sales grew by 4% from October 2 through December 3, 2022 Port Washington, N.Y., December 15, 2022 – As a top performing prestige beauty category in 2021, including the all-important holiday season. Fragrance dollar sales grew by 4% from October 2 through December 3, 2022, compared to the same period in 2021, according to The NPD Group . The category also outperformed overall discretionary general merchandise spending during key weeks, including Black Friday and Cyber Monday. During this nine-week holiday period, fragrance category sales growth was due to higher average prices combined with fewer discounts, according to the Retail Tracking Service from NPD. This price increase was mostly due to consumers shifting their spending to higher-priced products, such as higher fragrance concentrations and luxury brands. “Fragrance sales reached new heights following the pandemic, and it’s particularly impressive that the market is maintaining this elevated level rather than softening, which is typically the case after such an unprecedented performance,” said Larissa Jensen , beauty industry advisor at NPD. “Considering that most holiday shopping for fragrances occurs within the two weeks leading up to Christmas, and December alone accounts for over 50% of fourth quarter sales, much of the fragrance category’s sales success for 2022 is yet to be determined.” ‘Brick’ outperforms ‘click’ During Black Friday week, fragrance sales at brick-and-mortar outlets outperformed the online channel, fueled by prices that are notably higher in stores, according to weekly retail tracking data from NPD. Overall, physical stores gained importance for the fragrance market during the holiday period thus far, accounting for 70% of sales in the nine weeks ending December 3, 2022, which is an increase of 1 point versus the same period last year. Specifically, specialty stores are gaining dollar share, with beauty-specialty stores fragrance sales growing at four-times the rate of department stores in October, according to NPD Checkout data. “Consumers are returning to holiday gatherings this year and embracing the in-person store experience where they can test products and get advice from sales associates, which bodes well for fragrance sales and the beauty industry overall,” said Jensen. “As holiday crunch-time sets in, it’s important for brands to continue to work hard to capture consumer attention in these crucial final weeks of the season.” NPD’s Checkout service offers robust data for tracking and improving performance across all channels plus buyer analytics to help businesses keep current customers and win new ones. Over 150,000 actively engaged buyers, the largest omnichannel panel focused on general merchandise and foodservice, provide us with receipt-based information on their in-store and e-commerce purchases. With comprehensive data from the same consumers over time, Checkout illuminates trends in behavior including migration to shopping online by category and consumer demographics. Buyer analytics deliver insight into most valuable customers, brand loyalty, brand leakage / lift, brand launches, and more. #Holiday
- Restauration commerciale: la consommation d’alcool recule d’un quart en volume en cinq ans
Par comparaison avec 2017, les Français boivent moins en soirée, mais plus en journée Les consommateurs d’alcool vieillissent et ne se renouvellent pas Paris, le 14 décembre 2022 — À l’approche des fêtes de fin d’année, période festive par excellence, The NPD Group , qui a récemment fusionné avec Information Resources, Inc. (IRI®) pour constituer un groupe mondial leader et fournisseur de technologies, se penche sur la consommation de boissons alcoolisées en restauration commerciale. En cinq ans, les commandes de boissons alcooliques ont reculé de 23 %, soit une perte d’un quart de la consommation totale (chiffres de janvier à septembre 2022 comparés à ceux de la même période en 2017). Déjeuner bien arrosé ! Circuit propice aux sorties conviviales, la restauration à table concentre à elle seule près des deux tiers (65 %) de la consommation totale de boissons alcoolisées en restauration commerciale. En journée, les celles-ci représentent 33 % de l’ensemble des commandes dans ce circuit. En soirée, si près de la moitié des commandes comportent toujours au moins un verre d’alcool, la consommation a reculé de 5 points au dîner depuis 2017. Le déjeuner crée la surprise avec 5 points de consommation en plus, tout comme la fin de journée (17h-19h), en croissance de 1,6 point. Maria Bertoch, experte foodservice au sein de The NPD Group, commente : « Les raisons du recul de la consommation d’alcool sont multiples. La crise sanitaire, l’inflation et la guerre en Ukraine ont bouleversé les habitudes des Français qui sortent de moins en moins de chez eux. Avec les restrictions liées au Covid, le rapport à la maison a évolué : les séries dament le pion au cinéma et la livraison à domicile a le vent en poupe. En 2022, les Français ont limité leurs dépenses et leurs temps de transport. Le résultat ? Les sorties conviviales en restauration à table reculent nettement (25 %) par comparaison avec 2019 (période de janvier à septembre) et les boissons alcoolisées, items les plus chers de la carte, sont particulièrement touchées par les restrictions financières et sociales. Au-delà des contraintes sanitaires et économiques, de plus en plus de Français changent leurs habitudes de consommation : aspirant à un mode de vie plus sain, ils consomment moins voire plus du tout d’alcool. » Vers un vieillissement des consommateurs ? Les plus gros consommateurs d’alcool restent les 35 ans et plus. S’ils représentaient 80 % de la consommation en volume en 2017, ils contribuent aujourd’hui pour deux tiers à sa baisse en restauration à table. Maria Bertoch commente : « Si les 18-24 ans n’ont jamais consommé beaucoup d’alcool en établissement, préférant acheter des bouteilles à rapporter à la maison, leur consommation a malgré tout reculé de 5 points depuis 2017 en restauration à table. Cette perte a un impact relatif sur l’ensemble du marché, mais elle soulève la question du renouvellement des consommateurs de boissons alcoolisées en restauration. Un autre indicateur vient renforcer ce constat : la consommation des 50 ans et plus reste la plus stable du marché. Les restaurateurs doivent donc veiller à trouver des animations ou des idées pour séduire un public plus jeune en le sensibilisant à la dégustation de boissons alcoolisées et renouveler à terme les consommateurs vieillissants. »
- Jeux de société – le cadeau idéal pour tous et pour tous les porte-monnaie
1 jouet sur 5 vendu en décembre est un jeu de société Paris, le 14 décembre 2022 : The NPD Group , qui a récemment fusionné avec Information Resources, Inc. (IRI®) pour établir un groupe mondial leader & fournisseur de technologies, d’analyses et de données décrypte la popularité des jeux de société en France alors que le compte à rebours avant Noël a démarré. Un choix abordable, durable et familial Les jeux de société sont la plus grosse catégorie de jouets vendue en décembre en France et ont pesé non moins de 192 millions d’Euros sur le dernier mois de l’année en 2021. Ils représentent à la fois un choix cadeau de valeur sûre dont la longévité n’est plus à prouver, mais aussi un budget abordable puisque le prix moyen d’une boîte de jeu de société en France ne dépasse pas 20 Euros. « Les jeux de société font écho aux aspirations actuelles des consommateurs qui cherchent à acheter du durable et des produits avec une forte longévité » commente Frédérique Tutt, Global Industry Expert, Jouet – The NPD Group . « Faire plaisir et investir dans des objets qui vont fédérer les générations et mettre de l’ambiance dans les fêtes de famille, que demander de mieux en période d’arbitrage des dépenses et de recherche du cadeau simple et efficace ? Avec la montée de la tendance des jeux coopératifs, le jeu de société est aussi une bonne option pour ceux qui cherchent à offrir un moment convivial aux enfants et à leurs familles ». Cocorico La France est le premier marché d’Europe pour les jeux de société suivie de l’Allemagne et du Royaume Uni. En 2021 plus de 22 millions de boîtes de jeux de société ont été vendues dans l’Hexagone avec l’Académie de Combat Pokémon comme best-seller sur l’ensemble de l’année. Les périodes de confinement successives ont vu la popularité des jeux de société monter en flèche en France. Beaucoup de temps passé au sein des foyers avec peu de distractions externes et la volonté des parents de ne pas trop céder à la tentation des écrans omniprésents expliquent ce phénomène. « La France a toujours été championne des jeux de société » continue Frédérique Tutt « et les périodes Covid n’ont fait qu’amplifier une tendance qui faisait déjà partie de l’ADN français ». Avec des sociétés françaises comme Asmodée, Dujardin, Bioviva en plus des leaders mondiaux que sont Hasbro, Mattel et Ravensburger, les jeux de société se portent bien en France. Grand classiques, nouveautés et tendance Kidulte Dans le classement des jeux de société les plus vendus en France, les grands classiques dominent avec Docteur Maboul en tête du podium, Qui-Est-ce et Puissance 4 dans le top 5. Pour ceux qui ont déjà tous les classiques ou qui cherchent de la nouveauté, les nouveaux jeux en tête du palmarès des ventes en 2022 sont : Le Jeu de Course Sonic, Le Mille Bornes Edition Pat-Patrouille et Mon premier Monopoly . Autre tendance qui nourrit la popularité des jeux de société : le phénomène Kidultes. Les ventes aux kidultes (12 ans et plus) progressent d’année en année. Cette catégorie a concentré à elle seule 27 % du chiffre d’affaires du jouet en 2021 (1,2 milliards d’Euros), soit une croissance de 28 % par rapport à 2019, l’année de référence pré- covid. En ce qui concerne les jeux de société les ventes aux kidultes ont concentré 45 % du chiffre d’affaires en 2021 avec plus de 9 millions de boîtes. « Les jeux de société sont une excellente option pour les adultes aussi, ils permettent de faire plaisir tout en cultivant une touche d’humour et d’originalité » continue Frédérique Tutt « Nos chiffres montrent d’ailleurs que les ventes de jeux de société sont élastiques : elles continuent entre Noël et jour de l’an et perdurent pendant la période des fêtes et au-delà – preuve de la versatilité de la catégorie. Que vous soyez un inconditionnel des grands classiques, curieux de découvrir la dernière édition de votre jeu préféré ou simplement en quête du cadeau star de la soirée qui va mettre de l’ambiance au réveillon, avec un jeu de société vous serez toujours gagnant ! ». Top 5 des jeux les plus vendus en Euros (octobre-novembre 2022) #1 Docteur Maboul – Hasbro #2 Skyjo – Blackrock Games #3 Cuisto Dingo – Goliath #4 Qui est-ce? – Hasbro #5 Puissance 4 – Hasbro Top 3 des nouveautés 2022 en Euros (octobre-novembre 2022) #1 Le jeu de course Sonic – Asmodée #2 Mille Bornes Pat’ Patrouille – Dujardin #3 Mon premier Monopoly – Hasbro Top 3 des ventes de jeux de société aux kidultes #1 Code Names – Iello #2 Blanc Manger Coco – Blackrock Games #3 Limite Limite – Asmodée Editions
- After Two Years of Isolation, Over Half of U.S. Consumers Say They Will Host or Visit Family and Fri
—Expect sales of barware tools and sets, alcohol-related beverageware, and appetizer serve ware to increase Chicago, December 14, 2022 — COVID-19 put a damper on holiday entertaining the past two years, but this year is likely to be different. According to a survey conducted by The NPD Group , 52% of consumers are less concerned about COVID-19 this year compared to a year ago, up 20 pts from last year, and 55% said they plan to host or visit family/friends during the holiday season, +8 pts from a year ago. “After two years of dealing with pandemic concerns, consumers are anxious and excited to entertain and attend parties this holiday season,” says Joe Derochowski, NPD’s home and home improvement industry advisor . “As a result, they are increasingly looking to socialize, shop, and gather with friends and family, which will naturally spur more retail growth opportunities during the holidays.” For the home industry, the entertaining-related subcategories that typically realize a sales bump during the holiday season include barware tools and sets; bottle openers; coasters; corkscrews; ice buckets; pie/cake/brownie server; tea tools; wine aerator – non-electric; and wine tool sets. These alcohol-related beverageware shapes are popular for holiday entertaining, like wine glasses, highball glasses/tumblers, old-fashioned glasses, goblets, pilsner/pub, and martini glasses. Not surprisingly, cheese/charcuterie boards, chip and dip servers, tiered serve ware, and platter trays see a sales spike leading up to Thanksgiving and Christmas. “Traditionally, holiday parties are held the two weekends before Christmas,” says Derochowski. “This year, with Christmas falling on a Sunday and Hannukah beginning on December 18 and ending on December 26, could mean more extended celebrations. Holiday guests may stay further into the next week, which means more opportunities for baking together, entertaining, or preparing extra food to have leftovers.”
- An Uneventful Black Friday May Provide an Early Hint of What’s to Come For Holiday in Canada
A lot can change in 12 months. Last year, consumers yearned for a “normal” holiday season, including traditions like mall shopping, gatherings with friends, and family dinners. At the beginning of 2022 Canadians were largely ready return to normalcy after four long covid waves. This sentiment drove demand for experiential purchases as well as products that enabled social interaction. In late spring, Canadians had started to feel the impact of strong economic pressures. As a result, sales pulled back. Q3 was the first sign of softness as retail tracked by NPD declined 1%. Unusually warm weather, soaring inflation, and the reality of yet another covid winter cast a dark shadow over the upcoming holiday shopping season. Amazon’s Prime week did very little to bolster retail sales after 2 years of strong growth. During the 8-weeks ending November 24, retail sales in Canada declined by 9% in both dollars and units. This trend continued on Black Friday, which was once the official kick-off for the holiday shopping season, as sales declined 6% vs. 2021. Despite the softening, holiday 2022 has seen some positive trends: Consumers have embraced brick-and-mortar retail. Traffic has increased as Canadians started their holiday shopping early. However, despite increased foot-traffic, consumers demonstrated a lack of urgency to purchase. Promotions have been plentiful as retailers look for ways to attract cautious consumers. Gen Z has embraced retail and has shown a willingness to spend. – Tamara Szames, Canadian retail industry advisor Read on for a breakdown of industry-specific insights: Black Friday started early this year for the Canadian home industry. Deals started the week prior to the big event, and as a result, Black Friday sales were spread over several weeks. Offers were available online to consumers ahead of Black Friday, possibly causing lighter crowds in store (compared to pre-pandemic levels). Promotional items were consistent to Black Friday last year, including air fryers, vacuums, multi-cookers, coffee/espresso makers, toaster ovens, stand mixers, massagers, personal care/grooming items. This year, there was an increased focus on entertainment-oriented housewares, as consumers once again prepared to host holiday parties. Door busters gave consumers great deals on a handful of categories; however, promotional offers aren’t expected to drive sales for the week across most appliance and houseware categories. – Pam Wood, Canadian home industry analyst Black Friday promotions in the Canadian beauty industry were stretched over several weeks. Consumers offered comparable online discounts as retailers focused on seamless shopping experiences offering online and ship to home options. Consumers shopped early for the holidays with a sense of exploration – welcoming brand experiences, samples, and consultations when it came to purchasing little luxuries to gift themselves and others. Experiences were also popular, as consumers embraced brick-and-mortar and were eager to test out makeup shades, scents and concentration, as well as different formulations. Still, fragrance was by far the category most consumers picked up to test and explore most often. When it comes to the apparel industry, consumers continued to shop for brands they know and love. Retailers have shown a penchant for showcasing products that embrace sustainability and social brand positioning. Ecommerce remains popular as many Canadians prefer to shop online for Black Friday deals. That said, retailers are still struggling to balance product inventory as they look to drive cross-channel shopping experiences. Promotions have been modest and have not driven consumer excitement for shopping this year. – Alecsandra Hancas, Canadian beauty and apparel industry analyst October was a challenging month for the Canadian toy industry as dollar sales decreased by double digit digits. As we approach the heart of the holiday toy shopping season, 2022 Black Friday sales were down 2%, nearly matching 2021. Strong promotional offers across all segments, including the growing collectibles segment, helped contribute to Black Friday’s relatively positive performance. While we did see great deals offered to shoppers, average selling prices continued to increase, showing that despite economic uncertainty, parents are willing to spend on big ticket items which are at the top of their children’s wish list. – Jeff Bowes, Canadian toy industry analyst Black Friday sales were softer than we had hoped for when it comes to the Canadian technology industry. Dollar sales declined by 6% for the week and units were down 8%. The main drivers of dollar declines this week include some of the largest revenue generating categories in tech. Computers and TVs were responsible for over half of the total dollar losses for the week. On the positive side, the top dollar growth categories included tablets, sound bars and headphones. Item trackers, smart locks and mobile phone accessories were some of our fastest growing categories for the week. Preliminary results for Cyber Week are also looking to be lower than last year. – Chris Brugman, Canadian technology analyst Get insights straight to your inbox #Holiday
- IRI November Inflation Tracker Reveals Price Increases Are Slowing, but Still Up 13% over Last Year
November food inflation increased at the slowest rate, +0.3% compared to October; center-store inflation moderated the most. CHICAGO – December 8, 2022 – IRI® , which recently merged with The NPD Group to create a leading global technology, analytics and data provider, today released a new report, November 2022 Price Check: Tracking Retail Food and Beverage Inflation , offering new insights into food inflation and its impact on consumer shopping behavior. The report leverages point-of-sale data for November 2022 and includes data across U.S. food channels, including grocery, drug, mass market, military commissaries and select club and dollar stores, as well as e-commerce. The latest data shows food and beverage prices in November 2022 increased by 0.3% compared to October. This increase is less than the 0.5% jump in October compared to September. Overall food inflation grew 13.2% versus one year ago; however, monthly increases compared to one year ago have leveled off over the last four months. Consumers are continuing to employ a range of strategies to reduce spending, such as switching to private labels, trading out of expensive food categories and trading down to mainstream and value brands, as well as consuming more at home versus away from home. “The pace of food inflation is leveling off but remains at a robust 13% level versus one year ago,” said Krishnakumar (KK) Davey, president of Thought Leadership for CPG and Retail, IRI and NPD. “IRI anticipates consumers will continue their trading down behavior over the December holidays and into the new year. However, in some segments, consumers will splurge to celebrate the holidays. Retailers and manufacturers with an in-depth understanding of consumer strategies have an excellent opportunity to build loyalty by offering products, price points and package sizes that provide good value.” To ensure retailers and manufacturers develop their go-to-market strategies with the most current information, IRI will continue to closely monitor consumer behavior and provide ongoing updates and guidance. Key insights from the November 2022 inflation report include the following: Within the store, inflation has moderated. Perimeter areas, including produce and deli, have seen inflation moderate to 8.2% versus one year ago, while inflation within center store, which includes snacks, frozen meals and other frozen foods, has leveled off in November at 14.9% versus one year ago. Several product categories enjoyed price declines in November versus October. Categories with the largest month-over-month price decreases included root vegetables (-7.2%), bacon (-3.4%), butter/margarine/spreads (-2.0%) and chocolate candy (-2.0%). Inflation varied significantly across the store. Fresh meat and seafood, and beverage alcohol segments rose just 4.3% versus October and 6.3% versus one year ago. However, other categories rose dramatically, such as dairy (+23.4%) and bakery (+18.4%). Food inflation did not diminish Thanksgiving celebrations for most American households. Inflation for the typical Thanksgiving meal was up 14.2% versus one year ago, driven by pies (+16.6%), side dishes (+17.8%) and baking (+17.4%), while main dishes were up 11.8% versus one year ago. Thanksgiving volume sales saw an uplift in 2022 of 72% (versus pre-Thanksgiving weeks), an increase of 6 percentage points versus year-ago Thanksgiving, suggesting that overall, Thanksgiving celebrations were not impacted by inflation. Approximately 44% of Thanksgiving sales were sold on deal, which is similar to 2021. Fifty percent of main dishes and 54% of pies sales were sold on promotions. The details of these and other findings are included in IRI's November inflation report, published here . About IRI IRI unifies technology, analytics and data to reinvent how people and companies make decisions, take action and optimize performance. With the largest repository of purchase, media, social, causal and loyalty data, all integrated into an on-demand, cloud-based technology platform, IRI helps to guide its more than 5,000 clients around the world in their quests to capture market share, connect with consumers, collaborate with key constituents and deliver market-leading growth. For more information, visit www.iriworldwide.com . IRI Media Contact: Shelley Hughes Email: Shelley.Hughes@IRIworldwide.com Phone: +1 312-731-1782
- TikTok beauty trend Dolphin Skin is in
Sales of prestige beauty products associated with TikTok trend report double-digit growth, says The NPD Group London: 6 December 2022 : According to The NPD Group, which recently merged with Information Resources, Inc. (IRI®) to create a leading global technology, analytics and data provider, sales of prestige beauty products associated with the TikTok trend Dolphin Skin reported double-digit growth from January to the end of October 2022, compared to the same period in 2021. A popular skincare trend on TikTok, the #dolphinskin has been viewed 2.8M on this popular social media channel. The concept of Dolphin Skin follows on from the glass skin trend and just like it, the idea is to make the skin appear super radiant and smooth with a luminous complexion. While it is a natural look, it involves several different products. Skin preparation Great skincare is the cornerstone of this trend, and sales of prestige skincare face creams increased 15% in 10 months in 2022, compared to last year. Sales of face serums with hydrating properties increased 13%, and sales of skincare face spray/mist increased 37% in the same period. This demonstrates that consumers are investing in products that hydrate the skin making it naturally more radiant and smoother. Make-up matters Sales of prestige radiant foundations, defined as products that provide radiance and luminosity, and erases dullness, increased 42% in the 10-month period in 2022. Sales of make-up setting sprays and powders increased 53%. Layering the finishing touches to achieve a truly luminous complexion, finishing touch make-up products are essential to Dolphin Skin. Sales of prestige make-up highlighters increased 24% from January to the end of October 2022 compared to the same period last year. Total blusher sales increased 37% in the 10-month period and sales of liquid blushers increased 81%. Emma Fishwick, Account Manager, NPD UK Beauty explains: “The importance of social media to the prestige beauty market cannot be underestimated. As we monitor the market, we can see the growing influence of TikTok beauty trends and how these can influence the way consumers purchase products. From Skin Cycling to Slugging and Moisture Sandwiching to Dolphin Skin, consumers are following these fast-moving trends with great enthusiasm and that is having a positive impact on sales of prestige beauty products.”
- The NPD Group Launches Home Décor Omnichannel Sales Tracking
Port Washington, NY, December 5, 2022 — The NPD Group * now includes home décor omnichannel sales tracking in the broad list of home categories it tracks for manufacturers and retailers. NPD’s home décor tracking covers art and wall décor, artificial plants and dried flowers, decorative accessories, mirrors, clocks, and candles. In addition to total market omnichannel sales tracking, the recently launched home décor service offers buyer analytics, recontact surveys (attitudes and usage), and client-specific segmentation. “Home décor products can be an affordable option to refresh a room, making these products an excellent way for consumers to show their personal style,” says Lora Morsovillo, president of NPD’s home industry practice . “But tastes and trends in the growing home décor market can change quickly ― and in today’s uncertain retail landscape, it’s more important than ever for our manufacturer clients and retail partners to stay on top of exactly what’s happening.” NPD’s Checkout receipt-based service tracked home décor sales for over a year and captured more than 890,000 receipts for the home décor products industry since January 2019. With over 1.3 million transactions in 2021, representing in-store and online purchases, Checkout Home Décor provides the most expansive view of home décor product buyers across all categories, channels, and retailers. NPD’s Checkout Home Décor service is the only one of its kind in the industry; no other company is tracking home décor, according to Morsovillo.
- Black Friday Week Retail Sales Fell Short of Last Year, Reports NPD
Discretionary general merchandise retail sales revenue fell below 2019 levels for the first time this year Port Washington, N.Y., December 2, 2022 – Black Friday week marked the sixth consecutive week of in-store sales revenue declines for U.S. discretionary general merchandise. During the week ending November 26, 2022, spanning Thanksgiving, Black Friday, and Small Business Saturday, sales revenue was 5% lower than during the same week in 2021, while unit sales were down 8%, according to U.S. retailer point-of-sale information collected by The NPD Group . Total November 2022 general merchandise retail sales revenue was 8% lower than it was in 2021. “Black Friday appears to have brought more shoppers out to the stores, but that traffic clearly didn’t amount to more spending,” said Marshal Cohen , chief retail industry advisor for NPD. “Retailers and manufacturers need to find new ways to engage the consumer in making purchases, converting consumers from social browsers to active buyers.” The 2022 Black Friday week underperformed compared to the past three years, only exceeding the sales revenue results during the same week in 2020 during the first year of the pandemic. This week was also the first time this year that discretionary general merchandise retail sales revenue fell below pre-pandemic 2019 levels (down 9%). Beauty was the only industry tracked by NPD where revenue and unit sales both increased during Black Friday week compared to each of the three previous years. Even the typically heavy-selling Black Friday industries, like technology, toys, and apparel, fell short of last year’s sales performance. “Compounding the economic pressures on consumers, the absence of new product in the market is a huge challenge for retailers right now,” Cohen said. “The good news is that the traffic is there, which opens the door for impulse purchases and some self-gifting — if the consumer can be persuaded.” #Holiday
- Los bares y restaurantes españoles consolidan la recuperación lograda este año
Las previsiones de NPD para el sector de foodservice en 2023 oscilan entre un comportamiento plano y una subida moderada de la facturación (+7%) Madrid, 1 de diciembre de 2022 – El mercado español de foodservice —restauración comercial y otros canales menores (vending, cantinas, retail , etc.)— oscilará en 2023 entre un crecimiento del 7,4% en el escenario más optimista y un comportamiento plano de las ventas (+0,3%) en el más pesimista, en función de la evolución de los diferentes factores de incertidumbre a lo largo del próximo año, según The NPD Group , que recientemente se ha fusionado con Information Resources, Inc. (IRI®) para crear un proveedor líder global de tecnología, análisis y datos. El sector mantiene el ritmo de recuperación del negocio este otoño y afronta con buenas perspectivas la campaña de Navidad, en la que alcanzará previsiblemente unas ventas similares a las de 2019, cuando rondaron los 3.250 millones de euros. Se trata de la primera Navidad de los últimos tres años sin restricciones de movilidad ni limitaciones de aforo, por lo que, a pesar del entorno actual de incertidumbre económica, se espera que dinamicen las ventas las comidas y cenas sociales de celebración con la familia y los amigos, las ocasiones que más echaban de menos los españoles. “Tras un magnífico verano, el sector sigue recuperándose este otoño y encara una muy buena campaña de Navidad. El consumidor está incrementando las visitas a establecimientos de restauración respecto al año pasado, aunque hace ajustes para controlar el gasto total en cada ocasión de consumo”, explica la directora de Foodservice de NPD en España, Edurne Uranga. Según NPD, las expectativas son que la industria española de foodservice cierre 2022 con un crecimiento de alrededor del 26% respecto al año pasado, hasta superar los 36.500 millones de euros, tan solo un 3% por debajo del negocio de 2019, a pesar de que el ejercicio comenzó aún con restricciones a causa de la variante Ómicron y continuó después con la incertidumbre derivada de la espiral inflacionista. No obstante, en cuanto al tráfico, aún no se ha retomado la frecuencia de consumo previa a la pandemia: se estima que el año cerrará con un 9% de visitas menos que en 2019 y aún faltan por recuperar 17 ocasiones de consumo per cápita para igualar las 159 que realizó cada español de media en 2019. La última ola del estudio Sentiments de NPD, realizada en septiembre, refleja que nueve de cada diez consumidores son conscientes del alza de los precios, pero “eso no quiere decir que lo hayan percibido negativamente o lo estén penalizando; de hecho, la restauración no está entre el Top 3 de actividades que tienen previsto recortar”, destaca Uranga. Menos postres y entrantes Los españoles están aplicando medidas de ajuste para mantener las ocasiones de consumo en restauración sin incrementar en exceso el gasto, con la búsqueda proactiva de promociones (35% de los consumidores), eliminación de los platos más caros (28%) o reducción del tamaño de la comanda eliminando postres (20%), entrantes (13%), refrescos (13%) y/o acompañamientos (13%). Además, el consumidor decide a qué ocasiones dirigir su ahorro: tiene previsto reducir tomar copas por la noche, tomar algo en el cine/teatro o estando de compras, pero no tiene intención de dejar de salir a desayunar (ocasión más resiliente en el consumo extradoméstico) y prevé mantener o incluso aumentar la frecuencia de ciertas ocasiones sociales como las comidas y cenas con familia o amigos. “Los españoles están haciendo esfuerzos para no renunciar a su consumo en restauración, tal y como refleja el estudio Sentiments . Tenemos un año complejo por delante, pero entendamos sus demandas y necesidades y hagamos seguimiento en continuo de su evolución para mantener la senda de crecimiento que ha seguido el foodservice español durante 2022”, concluye Edurne Uranga.
- Socks Make for a Fun Filled Holiday Season
With Santa being pulled in many directions this time of year, I tend to give him a break by filling my family’s Christmas stockings. Candy canes, chocolates, and lotto scratch-offs always make their way in, along with another popular item . . . socks! Socks are the top-gifted apparel item during the holiday season, traditionally selling almost double the units of shirts and sleepwear, according to NPD Consumer Tracking data. It’s no surprise that consumers look to give things they know people will put to good use. In fact, 64% of U.S. adults tend to wear socks at home. While only 22% wear just socks, a third pair them with other footwear like slippers (16%), shoes (13%), or slides (8%), according to the NPD Omnibus Survey. Beyond gifting, we can also expect self-purchasing of socks for the holidays; one-third of consumers say they need to replenish their socks this winter. After jeans, socks are the second most sought-out apparel item consumers plan to replace, which bodes well for socks placed near the checkout counter — one-third of socks that were purchased for the buyer’s own use were bought on impulse during the fourth quarter of last year. Casual socks are the most popular styles, with sales growing 5% so far this year, versus 2021. These are your everyday, basic socks that play up comfort over style or performance, which is perfect for the 64% of consumers who wear socks while lounging at home. While alleviating Santa from his stocking stuffer duties, I will be secretly hoping a few pairs find their way into my own stocking this year. If not, I’ll be sure to have a few extra on hand, just in case. Happy Holidays!
- Back in Stores, But Not the Black Friday of Yore
Marshal Cohen Chief retail industry advisor Juli Lennett Toys industry advisor Kristen Classi-Zummo Fashion apparel industry analyst Larissa Jensen Beauty industry advisor Beth Goldstein Fashion footwear and accessories industry analyst Joe Derochowski Home and home-improvement industry advisor Paul Gagnon Consumer technology industry advisor Matt Powell Senior sports industry advisor Black Friday 2022 delivered more U.S. store traffic than seen in the past couple of years during the pandemic, but what did that traffic mean for retail? Coming off of early-season October promotions and five weeks of negative year-over-year sales results, NPD’s industry experts were out in stores once again on Black Friday this year, taking a deeper look at the day’s retail activity. Here are some of the common themes that rose to the top of their observations of this year’s “big” holiday retail moment: Leisurely start leading to mid-day activity — similar to that of a busy weekend Door busters lost their luster after early promotion activity Social shopping , with groups of younger consumers browsing Signs of spending among those who came out to stores Well-stocked shelves and aisles Absence of new “hot” product offerings was apparent Deep discounts were the draw Read on to see some of their industry-specific insights around the highly anticipated holiday shopping event: “Black Friday was busy, but it didn’t have that classic Black Friday feeling. The morning bustle and hunt for hot new items was missing. Malls had moderate traffic, while outlets were overflowing. This was likely a decent start to the back-half of the 2022 holiday shopping season, but it remains to be seen what comprehensive sales results reveal about actual spending. Not to mention the question of Cyber Monday and the week’s ability to capture a consumer who has grown weary of ongoing promotions and more interested in shopping as a social gathering.” – Marshal Cohen, chief retail industry advisor “Parking lots appeared less crowded on Black Friday than over the previous weekend when consumers were shopping for their turkeys and pie, and toy sections looked more like a busy weekend. With few exceptions, many of this year’s hot-selling toys could be found, although availability varied by retailer. Despite lackluster crowds, people were taking advantage of the big toy promotions and buying on Black Friday, but they did seem more cognizant of prices overall.” – Juli Lennett, toys industry advisor “Black Friday was a mixed bag for apparel retail. Must-have brands and retailers had traffic, regardless of the promotions being offered. For department stores, online and in-store promotional offerings were inconsistent and occasionally, confusing. One standout observation was the high turnout of Gen Z. Younger consumers flooded the mall, treating Black Friday as a social event. They came early, they came with friends, and they came to shop.” – Kristen Classi-Zummo, fashion apparel industry analyst “I remain optimistic about holiday for beauty, even if Black Friday felt like a letdown. Consumers showed up, though later in the day. Stores were well stocked, ready for the official kick-off of the holiday season. And I observed a lot of spending overall, which is a bright sign for beauty – the ultimate little luxury for consumers to indulge in and gift to others.” – Larissa Jensen, beauty industry advisor “In one of the prime New York City shopping areas, traffic was back, much heavier than a typical weekend shopping day in recent years. While NYC isn’t necessarily representative of what is going on across the country, the crowd and tourist activity did say something about the consumer’s willingness to spend (and travel) this holiday. Long checkout lines, busy footwear specialty stores, and lots of shopping bags. Footwear and luggage captured more attention than fashion accessories in department stores, despite some outlet-like discounting. In-store, consumers were responding to both sparkle and fluff – the extremes of head-to-toe party looks and products to curl up with at home.” – Beth Goldstein, fashion footwear and accessories industry analyst “There were promotions across home and across categories, including some shockingly low prices at opening price points. However, there was more differentiation between retailers this year. Rather than similar products being promoted everywhere, each retailer seemed to pick a feature category, be it air fryers, cookware, floor care, or personal care.” – Joe Derochowski, home and home-improvement industry advisor “Two kinds of early sales seemed to have an impact on who felt the need to be at the store when doors opened – those that started in early October, and those that started earlier in the week –acting to smooth demand at both a macro calendar level, and at a micro daily level. While some of the best bargains were seemingly sold out early, there were plenty of other choices stacked in aisles and open areas of the store, especially TVs, and video game consoles! TV prices below $500 seemed to resonate with consumers, but deeper discounts may still be needed to adjust inventory.” – Paul Gagnon, consumer technology industry advisor “Black Friday has become increasingly less important to sports retail. Given the high levels of inventory, and lack of hot new sports items, promotions at brick-and-mortar retail were tepid. However, online promotions were shockingly deep, which will be difficult for brands to offset come next holiday.” – Matt Powell, senior sports industry advisor Get insights straight to your inbox #Holiday