To help you prepare for the months ahead, we are sharing three major impacts we are watching closely at Circana:

• The Holiday Shopping Timeline Has Blurred: Traditional start and end dates no longer apply. Shoppers are spreading out purchases from late October through the new year, motivated by early deals, rolling promotions, and the ease of online browsing. According to Circana’s 2025 Holiday Purchase Intentions report, almost half of consumers plan on starting their holiday shopping before Thanksgiving, and 24% have already started or even finished, up nearly 4 percentage points from last year. Retailers can no longer rely on single events like Black Friday. They are instead finding success with ongoing, personalized engagement and flexible inventory planning to meet demand across an extended season. Real-time data enables smarter stock management, reduces markdown risk, and promotes a more seamless omnichannel experience.

• Tariffs Reshape Strategies: Tariffs continue to impact both price and supply, affecting categories such as electronics, apparel, and toys. More than 80% of holiday shoppers expect prices to be higher this year as a result of tariffs and other economic factors. Price increases have prompted shoppers to delay or rethink purchases, and retailers to pivot by diversifying suppliers, tightening inventory, and leaning into more targeted promotions. Retailers need to take charge by clearly communicating price changes and demonstrating value to maintain customer trust and loyalty.

• Online Convenience Curtails Impulse Buys: With online shopping dominating, the spontaneous purchases that often boost holiday baskets are less frequent. To recapture these moments, leading brands are introducing bundles, limited-time offers, personalized recommendations, and gamified experiences to foster urgency and discovery in digital channels. Checkout prompts and curated online deals help drive incremental sales even in a digital-first landscape.