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Back-to-School 2022: Three Semesters of Spending

  • Writer: Marshal Cohen
    Marshal Cohen
  • Aug 1, 2022
  • 2 min read

The 2022/2023 school year will be the first since the start of the pandemic where parents and students have certainty about going back to school for the duration of the traditional back-to-school shopping season. However, there are new factors that weren’t part of the equation in 2019 or even in 2021, which will result in a newly elongated and fragmented shopping landscape for this annual retail event – one that will emerge over three semesters of spending.


Essentials First

Students have been in school for the better part of the past school year so the excitement of going back is not as great as it was last year. Consumers are also busier and more distracted by social engagements this summer. Only 26% of U.S. consumers had started their back-to-school shopping as of mid-July and16% said it wasn’t even on their minds yet.


Couple the emotional timing elements with the elevated cost of just about everything and the priority purchases will be uniforms, laptops, and other items needed for the school year. This prioritization was evident over the week of Prime Day and other retailer promotions, when school supplies, footwear, and apparel did not get the same lift as other categories.


Supplies and Dorm Set-up Second

More than half of U.S. consumers are planning to start their back-to-school shopping this year in August. The majority of consumers who are holding off on back-to-school shopping are waiting for sales (41%), while others are waiting for school lists or the start of school to see what is needed.


This wave is when students and parents will begin shopping for pens, pencils, notebooks, backpacks, and other the less specific and easier-to-find school needs. Others will be outfitting college dorms with things like bedding, air purifiers, and storage bins.


Refining Personal Style Comes Third

Shopping for fall clothing to wear in a classroom is low on the list of things to do during the summer months. when the focus is on vacations and fun. Once students are back in school with their peers, they will have a better sense of the personal style they want to feature through their apparel and footwear. At this point, swimwear and shorts are on their way out and the fall season is on the nearby horizon, putting those fall looks more top of mind.


Manufacturers and retailers need to be prepared for consumer spending that will hit different categories at various times over the coming weeks and months. Consumers are still shopping in the moment, but now their eyes are focused on finding good deals.



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Marshal Cohen

Chief Retail Advisor

Students have been in school for the better part of the past school year so the excitement of going back is not as great as it was last year

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About the author

Marshal Cohen is a nationally known expert on consumer behavior and the retail industry. He has followed retail trends for more than 30 years at Circana (formerly The NPD Group) and as the head of leading fashion and apparel manufacturers and major retailers.


As part of his work at Circana, Marshal leads many top firms in long-range and strategic planning sessions. He often utilizes motivational presentations to help launch corporate goals and kick-off meetings. Marshal is the author of two books, “Why Customers Do What They Do” (2006) and “Buy Me! How to Get Customers to Choose Your Products and Ignore the Rest” (2010).


In addition to his duties at Circana, Marshal is a member of several boards of directors and was appointed to the Cotton Board and American Apparel and Footwear Association (AAFA). He is also a guest professor at North Carolina State University’s Wilson College of Textiles, where he introduces students and faculty to techniques for analyzing and applying data. Marshal has been a guest lecturer at the Wharton School of Business, the Fashion Institute of Technology, and Savannah College of Art and Design. He has also twice been named to the Footwear News Power 100 list.


Marshal is a regular contributor to many major media outlets. He is frequently quoted in publications like The Wall Street Journal, The New York Times, and Women’s Wear Daily. Additionally, he appears on various television news programs, including “Today,” “Good Morning America,” and “CBS Sunday Morning,” and he has been a regular guest on Bloomberg TV and Radio. He is also a sought-after speaker at key industry events such as MAGIC, The Fairchild CEO Summits, The National Retail Federation’s (NRF) Annual Convention, and The American Apparel and Footwear Association’s (AAFA) Annual Executive Summit. Marshal was the only industry expert who appeared in the documentary, “God Save my Shoes,” produced by Caid Productions.


Marshal has held a variety of positions analyzing and interpreting Circana’s uniquely combined consumer and point-of-sale tracking services for the apparel, footwear, accessories, and sports industries. His career began in the training program at Bloomingdale’s, where he worked his way up to merchandise manager. From there, he became president of WilliWear and subsequently president of Stanley Blacker. He was also founder, owner, and president of Motive Marketing Group.


To reach Marshal Cohen for commentary, please email janine.marshall@circana.com.


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