- Marshal Cohen
- 1 hour ago
- 6 min read
Retail enters a phase of continuance
Change has been a constant consumer theme over the past several years. But consumers have steadied and are consistently demonstrating their spending priorities and thresholds, while also providing windows into desire-driven opportunities for retail. It's now up to the retail community to make changes, reengage, and reignite the consumer’s enthusiasm in order to spark growth in 2026.
At Circana, we translate the complexity of changing consumer behavior and retail activity into clear, focused guidance that helps our clients make confident decisions.
Right now, we’re thinking about what’s ahead for 2026. Read on to see six U.S. retail and consumer predictions so you and your business can anticipate what’s next.
“The ambiguity of consumer change is clearing, clearing a path for growth opportunities through a new phase of retail evolution.”
1: The Progression of AI Commerce
AI is poised to change the state of retail
It's just the beginning of AI-educated and -curated shopping, but consumers are increasingly adopting the capability. The percent of consumers who have tried generative AI products, programs, or tools, or used a product that used AI to recommend something, has increased from 47% to 55% in the past year.2 And among non-AI users, 55% expressed interest in trying or using generative AI products, programs, or tools in the future.2 Consumers are seeking out non-biased responses to their needs.
In this growing e-commerce landscape, brands and retailers need to be engaged with AI capabilities or risk getting lost. The development and progression will be phased on both sides of the equation. But 2026 will be a milestone moment in the evolution of AI commerce as consumers seek accessible ways to address their shopping and product consumption needs.
E-commerce accounted for over 25% of total retail annual dollars and over 65% of dollar growth in the past year.
Source: Source: Circana, Checkout (accessories, auto aftermarket [not incl. tires], consumer electronics, furniture, home decor, home improvement, home textiles, housewares, juvenile, office supplies [excludes janitorial/breakroom], small appliances, sports equipment [includes team sports], toys); Consumer Tracking Service (apparel, footwear); Retail Tracking Service (cycling, prestige beauty); CREST® (foodservice), 12ME December 2025; Omnichannel model for F&B (UPC-scans products) and nonedible (excl. tobacco), 52WE December 28, 2025
2: Social Commerce Becomes Paramount
Discovery is the fuel behind retail growth
The source of purchase behavior influence is entering a dramatic shift. While still small in the overall retail landscape, TikTok Shop’s share of e-commerce signals meaningful traction and growth potential. This is where and how consumers are discovering product newness, innovation, desire, and need.
Among the e-commerce universe, Q4 TikTok Shop sales are roughly on par with electronic channels. While pureplay e-commerce and mass channels dominate1, TikTok Shop’s rapid emergence signals that social commerce is no longer niche. There's a new sphere of “influencers” in a growing social commerce network, allowing consumers to utilize social commerce in bigger and different ways. Marketers need to watch social movement in real time in order to be able to respond in-the-moment — nimbleness has new meaning. Yes, social commerce brims with challenges for retail. But the growing network offers brands and retailers the same opportunity as consumers: to take innovative approaches and build to growth at a whole new level.
TikTok Shop generated $6.5B in Q4, reaching 1% of total retail sales in just two years, and 3% of e-commerce sales.
Source: Circana, Complete Consumer, 11 weeks ending December 21, 2025 (Total retail, brick & mortar, e-commerce; excluding foodservice and tobacco), and Circana, SocialCommerce, 13 weeks ending January 4, 2026 (TikTok Shop)
3: GLP-1 Enters Phase 2
Lifestyle impacts of GLP-1 product accessibility will reach far and wide at retail
The affordability and accessibility of GLP-1 products has developed significant forward momentum. As these products become more commonplace, there will be broader adoption resulting in significant lifestyle changes — like increases in exercise and hydration and decreases in tobacco use — to what we do, how we do it, and how often we do it.
As a result, retail can expect huge changes in spending, including a dramatic injection into many secondary product categories, from fitness trackers to apparel, and some may be unexpected.
These changes will be continuous, and gradual, but there's the potential of more dramatic shifts reaching an even more diverse collection of products as adoption increases.
23% of households claimed to be using GLP-1s, up 4% compared to last year, as of September 2025.
Source: Circana, Receipt Panel Weight Loss Rx Survey (Jul 2025, Sept 2025)
4: Lifestyle Spending Puts Down Roots
The need to prioritize spending repositions lifestyle purchases as passion purchases
Since the Covid-19 pandemic, consumers have addressed nearly every aspect of their lifestyle in a different way. Now, the economy is underscoring those behaviors and purchase dynamics, with usage and replenishment as core focus. Spending on products that extend beyond the core needs tends to be grounded in lifestyle passions.
Overall, wellness is a bigger focus as consumers become more educated and more products increasingly accessible.
Unlike during the pandemic, consumers are going out, but they're behaving differently.
Technology is a big part of everyday life, giving it even more capacity to enhance lifestyle.
Beauty is another indulgence that today’s consumer has become obsessed with and continues to capture the consumer’s attention and wallet.
Industry segments that don’t directly play with current lifestyle spending trends need to figure out how to tap into those trends and that spending.
At the start of 2026, 96% of consumers said they had plans to incorporate wellness into their routines in various ways, up three points versus the prior year.
Source: Circana, Omnibus Survey, January 2026
5: Mini-Holidays Create Critical Retail Moments
Event-based peak periods bring opportunity to tap into in-the-moment spending needs
Retail performance is demonstrating a migration away from traditionally major retail holidays and universal promotional periods. Instead, need-based spending during mini retail holidays like the Super Bowl, Valentine’s Day, Easter, Memorial Day, and July 4 is presenting more opportunities that have yet to be fully tapped.
Mini-holidays are events that are moments for the consumer, each generating their own set of needs and sales lifts throughout the year. Many marketing efforts have yet to fully sync with the consumer’s spending timeline around these moments. Cross merchandising and expanding on typical selling strategies will create more significant retail moments that can not only extend beyond the dominant practical gifting trends, but also shine a light on purchase behavior that helps to inform overall gift trends.
Manufacturers and retailers who can effectively harmonize with these moments, and the ways in which consumers naturally look to engage in related purchases, will realize just how critical mini-holidays are to growth.
Mini-holiday shopping weeks account for about one-half of first-half dollars and units in general merchandise and about one-third of first-half dollar and unit sales in CPG industries.
Source: Circana, point-of-sale first-read data/limited release (general merchandise); total market view MULO+ with conv and MULO+ with perimeter (F&B/non-edible CPG- excluding tobacco)
5: Demographic Divergence Magnifies
Volatility among various income and age consumer groups sets retail’s trajectory
Spending behavior shifts are occurring across retail. In general merchandise, those shifts are more significant, while more subtle slowing is taking place in CPG.
Historically, when one income segment declines and another rises, the effects neutralize each other. However, with both the middle- and lower-income segments declining, the overall retail environment becomes more challenging. When the middle-income segment demonstrates a spending pullback, it becomes a critical story.
From an age perspective, mature consumers are growing in importance, both in their overall population size and their share of spending. At the same time, younger consumers are facing a mix of economic, social, and psychological challenges that impact their overall ability to spend across retail. Spending challenges result in spending shifts. In the case of 18–24-year-old consumers, they have shifted their spending more toward apparel, auto, and toys, and away from tech and furniture.
Consumers are spending what they can, and maintaining levels in line with last year, but they're allocating that spending differently, and getting less for that money. This is what we’ve dubbed “invisible inflation,” where steady spending totals give the appearance that there is no inflation at play but falling demand and consumption levels across retail depict a different story. As the debt story grows, this dynamic will continue, and it will be critical to understand how the impacts develop differently by demographic.
Source: Circana, Checkout, general merchandise
The Bottom Line
Leveraging any one of these six trends will help you capture growth
Many of these trends are interconnected, further conveying the foundation of new consumer behavior that has been laid. On its own, that foundation provides a stability of maintained sales performance. It also signals the challenges of a need to build something new to drive growth and provides a basis of opportunity to grow from — with the right tools, materials, and approaches. One of the most prominent common threads weaving through the retail and consumer predictions for 2026 is the need for innovation. In 2025, the level of new product brought to market was at the lowest level in years. In 2026, innovation will be a vital lever to activate across all four elements of marketing — product, price, promotion, place.
Each of these six predictions brings their own challenges and opportunities to retail. Understanding and addressing the ones that are best suited for your business, while embracing the necessary change to do so, will prime you for a more successful 2026.
Interested in continuing the conversation around what’s next in retail with Marshal?
Email contactus@circana.com or connect with your Circana account representative.
