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Looking Back To Prepare For The Year Ahead

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Marshal Cohen

Chief Retail Advisor

Last year showed us that the consumer is resilient but also changing.

  • Writer: Marshal Cohen
    Marshal Cohen
  • Feb 13, 2024
  • 2 min read

As the dust settles on year-end sales results and we shift our focus to the year ahead, there are several significant learnings from 2023 and interpretations to ponder as we navigate further into 2024.


Last year showed us that the consumer is resilient but also changing.

Consumers prioritized spending on more practical items to make their lives easier, safer, and healthier. Their sense of indulgence shifted to focus more on what they do, and less on what they get. Travel returned, but as the worldwide political scene grew more tumultuous, the emphasis turned toward more domestic trips.


Premiumization took supremacy as prestige beauty products fueled general merchandise growth despite the availability of more affordable mass-market beauty products. Brands took on more important roles in selling, both direct to consumers and through retailers. But the spending pie didn’t get bigger: The same volume just got sliced up into more pieces across more outlets. The lack of new and innovative product offerings came back to haunt retail sales as bored consumers tired of seeing only more of the same. They saw no reason to shop until it was time for replenishment purchases.


Instead of luring the consumer through price discounts, retail offered modest discounts almost all year long. The lack of deep price discounts and the seemingly endless extension or repetition of modest price discounts did little to convince consumers to “Buy now or lose out.” Moreover, few products presented any concern of a limited supply or realistic fear of missing out if a purchase was postponed — so on this front, too, consumers felt no sense of urgency to shop. And with so many retail outlets selling the same or similar products, there was nothing to drive the usual holiday-time panic purchasing. In short, inflation-battered, debt-conscious, and unusually price-sensitive consumers felt no impetus to extend already strained budgets beyond planned purchases and minimal gifts this holiday season — creating a noticeable absence of self-gifting and impulse purchasing.


The year ahead presents plenty of opportunities, but exploiting them will take progressive thinking.

Consumers need an incentive to purchase. The creation of new and exciting products is the first component that has to return to the retail picture. New messaging that entices consumers to widen their horizons will be critical as retail competes with a broader spending base across higher costs for essentials.


Out of the gate, convenience is going to be key to getting the consumer’s attention and breaking newly created conservative spending habits. It is the benefit with more influence than uniqueness — and the greatest power to prevail over pricing concerns and bypass existing brand loyalties.


Economic challenges, political distractions, job market adjustments, and mounting consumer debt will make 2024 a tricky year to navigate. Each will present obstacles for retail in trying to engage consumers and shift their thinking to once again prioritize spending.



About the author

Marshal Cohen is a nationally known expert on consumer behavior and the retail industry. He has followed retail trends for more than 30 years at Circana (formerly The NPD Group) and as the head of leading fashion and apparel manufacturers and major retailers.


As part of his work at Circana, Marshal leads many top firms in long-range and strategic planning sessions. He often utilizes motivational presentations to help launch corporate goals and kick-off meetings. Marshal is the author of two books, “Why Customers Do What They Do” (2006) and “Buy Me! How to Get Customers to Choose Your Products and Ignore the Rest” (2010).


In addition to his duties at Circana, Marshal is a member of several boards of directors and was appointed to the Cotton Board and American Apparel and Footwear Association (AAFA). He is also a guest professor at North Carolina State University’s Wilson College of Textiles, where he introduces students and faculty to techniques for analyzing and applying data. Marshal has been a guest lecturer at the Wharton School of Business, the Fashion Institute of Technology, and Savannah College of Art and Design. He has also twice been named to the Footwear News Power 100 list.


Marshal is a regular contributor to many major media outlets. He is frequently quoted in publications like The Wall Street Journal, The New York Times, and Women’s Wear Daily. Additionally, he appears on various television news programs, including “Today,” “Good Morning America,” and “CBS Sunday Morning,” and he has been a regular guest on Bloomberg TV and Radio. He is also a sought-after speaker at key industry events such as MAGIC, The Fairchild CEO Summits, The National Retail Federation’s (NRF) Annual Convention, and The American Apparel and Footwear Association’s (AAFA) Annual Executive Summit. Marshal was the only industry expert who appeared in the documentary, “God Save my Shoes,” produced by Caid Productions.


Marshal has held a variety of positions analyzing and interpreting Circana’s uniquely combined consumer and point-of-sale tracking services for the apparel, footwear, accessories, and sports industries. His career began in the training program at Bloomingdale’s, where he worked his way up to merchandise manager. From there, he became president of WilliWear and subsequently president of Stanley Blacker. He was also founder, owner, and president of Motive Marketing Group.


To reach Marshal Cohen for commentary, please email janine.marshall@circana.com.


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