Fresh approaches to value, back-to-school, and digital creator trends pose opportunities to grow

CHICAGO, August 15, 2024 – According to the latest Future of™ Office Supplies forecast from Circana™, overall United States sales revenue for the office supplies* industry is projected to decrease by 4.9% in 2024. However, 2024 is anticipated to continue the industry’s gradual recovery, with revenue and unit declines expected to soften to less than 2% through 2026, signaling a trend toward stabilization.

“The unpredictable demand swings caused by the pandemic are finally behind us, leading to a more stable office supplies sales cycle moving forward,” said Ben Arnold, industry advisor, Office Supplies, Circana. “Even as some businesses encourage a return to the office, hybrid work schedules have become the new norm across most of the United States. As a result, people are now buying office supplies for themselves that they previously relied on their offices to provide. Brands and retailers must stay attuned to these evolving consumer needs to deliver value in this changing landscape.”

Key trends and resulting growth opportunities from the report include:

• As economic pressures persist, value will continue to be a crucial factor in office supply purchases in 2024 and beyond. Circana data indicates that the average selling price (ASP) for office supplies is expected to decrease by nearly 2% in 2024, attributed to factors including marketplace sales and private label brand growth, a continued shift to online retail, and a dynamic promotional environment.

• The back-to-school season remains a key time for office supplies sales, but there is increased competition with technology products as consumers and school systems refresh their products. In Q3 2024, office supply revenue is forecasted to fall by 2.6%, showing improvement from Q3 2023 (-5%). Brands and retailers can maximize growth this back-to-school season by finding opportunities to innovate or repackage traditional supplies to appeal more to students, parents, and school systems.

• The rise of digital creators and the do-it-yourself trend is boosting interest in coloring and art supplies, presenting growth opportunities. Traditional products for productivity and creation are still right-sizing from the heights of the pandemic, but digital creation has taken off — there has been a 36.4% increase in digital point-and-shoot camera sales year to date. Consumers are increasingly eager to create and share content and social media trends are contributing to emerging pockets for growth. For instance, the popularity of #ColorWithMe videos on TikTok correlates with a modest 2.4% increase in unit sales of paint markers despite overall declines in total writing instruments. While consumer trends around creators are primarily digital, they have the potential to be adapted for traditional offline media and tools.

Arnold adds: “Growth opportunities still exist and will continue to emerge in the office supplies sector. It’s essential for brands and retailers to align their products with the evolving needs of consumers regarding size and price point, as well as making the connection between traditional supplies and the trends resonating most. Additionally, reaching these consumers with effective messaging at the right cadence will be crucial for success.”

*Office supplies data referenced excludes janitorial, breakroom, and storage.