Large-Chain Transactions Were Flat in March, the Best Performance Observed in 2025

CHICAGO – April 23, 2025 – The restaurant industry showed promising signs of recovery in March 2025, as large-chain restaurant transactions saw notable improvement, according to Circana, LLC. Transactions for the four weeks ending April 6, 2025, were flat (0%) year-over-year. This marks a significant gain over February’s 4% decline, showcasing the industry’s remarkable resilience in the face of economic uncertainty and low consumer confidence.

“March's performance is an encouraging indication of the restaurant industry’s strength and adaptability,” said Tim Fires, president of Global Foodservice for Circana. “Restaurants introduce us to new culinary adventures with international flavors and creative takes on classic dishes. They deliver convenience when cooking isn't an option and offer fantastic moments to celebrate with loved ones, which is crucial during periods of uncertainty.”

Key Highlights 

Insights from Circana’s CREST Performance Alerts reveal several positive trends contributing to the restaurant sector’s renewed momentum in March:

• Improved Transaction Decline: For the four weeks ending April 6, 2025, large-chain restaurant transactions were flat (0%) YoY, a notable improvement from February’s 4% decline.

• All Dayparts Contributed to Improvements:

  • The morning meal was the best performing daypart and made the most progress, recovering from -6% in February to 3% in March. This rebound is largely driven by an increase in office occupancy rates as more companies implement stronger return-to-office policies.

  • Along with the morning meal, snacking was a top-performing daypart, with transactions slightly growing YoY during the March period.

    
    

• Strength Across Restaurant Formats:

  • Both quick-service restaurants (QSRs) and full-service restaurants (FSRs) showed performance improvement relative to February.

  • Within QSRs, fast-casual restaurants led the way, growing transactions by 2% in March.

Resilience Amid Uncertainty

Despite ongoing economic challenges, the March results highlight the enduring relevance of restaurants in consumers’ lives. From morning coffee runs to afternoon snacks and sit-down dinners with family, restaurants continue to be essential for both convenience and experiences that go beyond what can be recreated at home.

"The positive momentum we saw in March shows how adaptable the restaurant industry is and how it can thrive even when market conditions are constantly changing,” added Fires.