Holiday season spending is expected to boost sales

CHICAGO – Nov. 7, 2024 – Circana™, a leading advisor on the complexity of consumer behavior, today announced the U.S. toy retail sales performance results for January through September 2024, revealing insights into the retail trends, performance drivers, and consumers’ holiday shopping intentions. Decline rates across dollars and units have slowed substantially compared to the same nine-month period in 2023, with year-over-year dollar sales flat, units sold down 0.5%, and average selling price (ASP) up 0.5%. Compared to 2019 sales, the toy industry remains 37% ahead, equating to $4.5 billion.

Four of the 11 supercategories posted dollar growth through the third quarter, and three also posted unit growth. Building sets was the only supercategory to post growth across dollars, units, and ASP, driven by LEGO Botanicals. Other growth areas included explorative toys, led by NBA trading cards; plush, driven by Hello Kitty; and vehicles, led by Monster Jam. The industry’s primary declines came from outdoor and sports toys, dolls, and action figures.

“In the beginning of the year, I coined ‘correction to consistency’ as the theme of 2024, and during the third quarter the toy industry reached a level of stability that we have been moving towards,” said Juli Lennett, vice president and toy industry advisor at Circana. “However, the positive performances remain within a small group of categories; what’s needed is more stability across the board.”

Stepping into the holiday season, below is the list of the top selling new toys in September 2024 – offering a peek into what toy consumers may be vying for this holiday: 

Holiday expectations 

Overall, consumers are planning to spend about 2% more on their holiday shopping this year than last year, according to Circana’s annual Holiday Purchase Intentions Report. Age strongly influences intended spending, with millennials planning to spend the most among the generations. Consumers with children plan to be the biggest spenders across all cohorts. 

“The toy industry may get a boost this holiday season, with 43% of households with children reporting that they will spend more during the holiday season this year compared to last year – more than double that of households without children,” said Lennett. “Still, a host of other categories are competing for a share of those same wallets. Necessities like clothing and footwear, technology like video games and smartphones, and trending categories like beauty will all challenge the toy industry.”