CASE STUDY

How integrated data saved shelf space and cut shrink

Snapshot

SOLUTION AREA

Supply Chain

SOLUTION

Liquid Data Collaborate

INDUSTRIES

CPG

CLIENT

Manufacturer

The Objective

A leading CPG brand risked losing shelf presence for its refrigerated guacamole line due to persistent overordering of short shelf life SKUs. The root cause was a disconnect between the retailer’s unit forecasts and actual sales, leading to inflated orders and excessive shrink through store-level donations.

The category buyer’s attempts to manually adjust forecasts within the retailer’s internal system were unsuccessful and changes weren’t holding. Compounding the issue, a planogram shift moved the product from deli to produce, negatively affecting visibility and sales velocity. The manufacturer aimed to strengthen its partnership with the retailer by using data-driven insights to diagnose the issue and recommend corrective actions.

The Solution

The manufacturer adopted a unified data strategy — merging supply chain forecast data with sales performance. This integrated view enabled the manufacturer to:

Identify Forecast Index Alerts: Anytime the retailer’s supply chain forecast was indexed 40% over actual sales, an automated alert would notify the manufacturer.

Diagnose Inventory Drivers: The analysis revealed two key insights:
- The planogram shift to produce correlated with a drop in consumer sales, suggesting a misalignment between product placement and shopper behavior.
- The retailer’s ongoing high sales forecasts resulted in at least three large orders fueling heavy instances of close coded product being donated to local food banks at a loss.

Recommend Corrective Action: The team proposed reverting to deli planogram placement and used data-backed insights to advocate for forecast recalibration.

The Results

The manufacturer engaged the retailer’s buyer with clear, data-driven recommendations. The result preserved distribution for four of five SKUs worth $2 million in annual sales, and the manufacturer reinforced the value of integrated forecasting for smarter, leaner inventory decisions.

The CPG partner expanded automated alerting functionality across its portfolio for heavy forecasting versus actual retail sales. The manufacturer continues to use this as a low-lift alerting capability to call out risks of heavy on-hand inventory.