Final wave of back-to-school spending is delayed, but there are opportunities to disrupt evolving consumer behavior and future shopping seasons

CHICAGO, September 16, 2024 — Traditional retail milestones, like the back-to-school shopping season, are being reshaped by changing consumer behavior, according to Circana™, a leading advisor on the complexity of consumer behavior. During the four weeks ending August 31, 2024, total U.S. retail sales revenue across the combined view of discretionary general merchandise and consumer packaged goods (CPG) declined 1% when compared to the same four weeks last year, and unit demand remained level. Year-over-year comparisons reveal a shift in performance, as sales revenue of each retail segment declined slightly. Retail food and beverage sales revenue was 2% lower than last year, with flat unit sales. Both sales revenue and demand of non-edible CPG declined 1%. Once again, discretionary sales declined 3% in dollars, but unit sales grew 1%.

“Consumers are buying the same amount of product, but they are spending less, and that spending is aligned with current needs,” said Marshal Cohen, chief retail industry advisor for Circana. “The defined block of time when that back-to-school spending traditionally occurred has faded, now spread across three waves of shopping and multiple shopping seasons.”

This year’s back-to-school spending is following a pattern similar to last year, but it’s falling short of last year’s performance. The first two waves of back-to-school shopping, which began in the early summer months with back-to-college preparation and retailer promotional events kicking off school supply purchases, continued through August. The need for school supplies and new shoes was apparent with the 4% increase in unit sales of both office supplies and leisure footwear. But the third wave of shopping, which focuses on the consumer wardrobe, was lacking in August as unit sales of apparel declined 3% compared to last year. America’s casualization has depleted the importance of back-to-school shopping for fashion.

While school necessities, like leisure footwear, portable beverageware, computers, tablets, and e-readers, were among the categories that rose to the top of the shopping list, innovation was a common thread across all of the fastest-growing discretionary general merchandise categories in August. Prestige beauty — namely hair, fragrance, and skincare — and toy building sets rounded out the top performers for the month, making it clear that innovations in design, functionality, and marketing are key to attracting consumers to spend outside their immediate need considerations.

“Consumers may be waiting for the weather to shift to buy what they need for changing temperatures, but with the right product or product message, marketers still can inspire desire-based purchases,” added Cohen. “Growth opportunities lie in wait for marketers prepared to grab them at a new time, or with a new approach, diminishing the role of traditional shopping seasons and indicators. Lackluster back-to-school spending no longer signals soft holiday spending to follow; instead, there may be lingering benefits of pent-up demand.” 

About Circana 

Circana is a leading advisor on the complexity of consumer behavior. Through superior technology, advanced analytics, cross-industry data, and deep expertise, we provide clarity that helps almost 7,000 of the world’s leading brands and retailers take action and unlock business growth. We understand more about the complete consumer, the complete store, and the complete wallet, so our clients can go beyond the data to apply insights, ignite innovation, meet consumer demand, and outpace the competition. Learn more at www.circana.com. 

Contact: 

Janine Marshall 

janine.marshall@circana.com