Challenging conditions early will give way to replacement-driven growth in key categories

CHICAGO, Jan. 9, 2024– U.S. consumer technology sales revenue is forecast to grow 2% in 2024, improving further in 2025 and 2026 as consumers once again begin to replace devices purchased during the pandemic, according to the latest Future of Technology report from Circana, formerly IRI and The NPD Group. Initial results indicate that 2023 dollar sales will end 10% below the prior year, marking the second year of revenue contraction. This year’s growth will come by the third quarter after continued declines early in the year.

“Consumers continued to spend fewer total dollars on tech products in 2023 through a combination of falling prices and shifting share of wallet to services and core needs,” said Paul Gagnon, vice president and technology industry advisor for Circana. “Upgrade cycles for pandemic-driven purchases will ramp up in late 2024 for key large-dollar categories like computers, creating growth opportunity.”

The computer category will account for almost half of the $1.7 billion consumer technology industry growth expected in 2024. Circana also anticipates unit sales of TVs and home automation devices will remain positive throughout the forecast period. TV unit sales are expected to grow by low single digits year over year through 2026 as larger sizes become more affordable and economic headwinds ease, allowing more growth in premium price points.

“New products can help to reignite demand and give consumers fresh reasons to spend on consumer technology products. This year, innovations in computing, virtual reality and home automation will contribute to the industry’s recovery,” said Ben Arnold, executive director and consumer technology industry analyst for Circana. “New technologies also typically sell for higher prices, which should provide additional industry sales support.”

Future of Technology forecasts and insights are based on forecasted sales of technology products captured in Circana’s Retail Tracking Service point-of-sale data.