CHICAGO – Oct. 1, 2025 – Circana, LLC released a new report analyzing 50 years of commercial foodservice data. The Historical Foodservice Analysis, which leverages Circana’s proprietary CREST^® data dating back to 1975, finds that past periods of high inflation and traffic declines offer critical insights for restaurant operators navigating the current economic climate.

The research reveals that the U.S. foodservice industry has faced similar challenges twice before in the last five decades. In both the late 1970s and the late 2000s, multiple years of high food-away-from-home inflation led to sustained declines in restaurant traffic. The analysis shows a recurring pattern: Traffic does not begin to recover until inflation rates subside, consumer sentiment improves, and the reliance on deals lessens.

A key finding from the report highlights the unprecedented rise in deal-seeking behavior. In the past 12 months, 29% of all commercial foodservice traffic was on a deal, the highest rate recorded in 50 years. This share has grown by 3.1 percentage points since 2022, a surge not seen since the 2008-2010 downturn. The report also notes the significant shift in how deals are accessed, with digital coupons now used more often than traditional clipped coupons that were prevalent in 2009.

While value is crucial during economic downturns, the analysis underscores that a strategy based solely on price is not enough. Brands that successfully gained market share in past slumps balanced value with quality, service, and innovation. Technological advancements and new food and beverage offerings proved essential in driving incremental visits and creating operational efficiencies.

“The U.S. foodservice industry has demonstrated its resilience again and again,” said David Portalatin, senior vice president and food industry advisor at Circana. “This decade, having weathered a global pandemic and historic inflation, history suggests that we will emerge from this period of uncertainty with a stronger industry. In the meantime, it’s crucial to maintain a clear and meaningful value proposition while leveraging technology and innovation to deliver exceptional experiences and outstanding service.”

Learn more about the comprehensive Historical Foodservice Analysis, which is now available for purchase from Circana.

About Circana

Circana is a leader in providing technology, AI, and data to fast-moving consumer packaged goods companies, durables manufacturers, and retailers seeking to optimize their businesses. Circana’s predictive analytics and technology empower clients to measure their market share, understand the underlying consumer behavior driving it, and accelerate their growth. Circana’s Liquid Data^® technology platform is powered by an expansive, high-quality data set and intelligent algorithms trained on six decades of domain expertise. With Circana, clients can take immediate action to future-proof and evolve their growth strategies amid an increasingly complex, fast-paced, and ever-changing economy. Learn more at circana.com.

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Shelley Hughes

Email: shelley.hughes@circana.com

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