CHICAGO – July 13, 2026 – U.S. consumers are no longer just cutting back; they are recalibrating how they buy, according to new Circana Compass research released today by Circana LLC. The insights show the U.S. retail food and beverage (F&B) industry grew 2.2% in the first half of 2026, and Circana projects growth will settle into a 2-3% range in 2027 as shoppers optimize spending amid financial pressure, shifting lifestyle priorities, and increasingly digital, AI-assisted shopping behavior. The findings signal a return toward pre-pandemic growth norms and a market entering a sustained period of rationalization.

2026 performance tracks in line with Circana forecasts

The U.S. retail food and beverage industry grew 2.2% in the first half of 2026, in line with Circana's forecast of 2-4% growth. Volume growth was flat as expected, reflecting tightening consumer behaviors. Price/mix grew 2.3%, landing on the lower end of the expected range due to uncertainty in fresh food pricing – rising 0.4% in price/mix versus a year ago – while packaged food categories trended as expected, rising 3.7% in price/mix versus a year ago as cost pressures continued.

Circana expects volume sales to remain flat through the balance of 2026 as strain on wallets persists and consumers grow more efficient in their spending. Price/mix growth should continue at similar rates, marked by steady, positive product mix shift, higher but stabilizing price growth in packaged goods, and rising price growth in fresh foods.

Rising inflation lifts European and Asia-Pacific sales

In Europe, year-to-date F&B sales through April grew 2.7% on 1.9% growth in price/mix. Circana expects high and rising inflation across Europe to boost F&B value growth through the remainder of 2026, reaching 4% or more for the year. Inflation-led high price points are likely to shift preferences toward lower-priced, smaller pack formats, aiding unit growth across all markets while volume remains hampered.

In Australia and New Zealand, Circana anticipates F&B sales growth to remain above 5%, due to price inflation driven by cost-related price increases and consumers spending more on premium products. Grocery volumes are supported by a migration of spend from discretionary retail into essentials, consistent population growth, elevated promotional activity, and private label investment.

U.S. growth returns to pre-pandemic pace in 2027

Following a period of outsized industry growth of nearly 7% CAGR between 2019 and 2024, driven by the pandemic and subsequent high inflation, Circana expects U.S. retail F&B growth to proceed in the 2-3% range in 2027, closer to pre-pandemic averages of 2.5-3.5%. Tight volume trends will continue as consumers enter a newer period of rationalization in the CPG space, optimizing spending decisions amid ongoing financial pressures, evolving lifestyle priorities, and rapidly changing digital shopping behaviors. Lower population growth also accounts for slower growth versus pre-pandemic levels. Moderate price/mix growth will continue to be supported by product mix gains as shelf increases slow outside of uncertain commodity shifts.

The consumer reset

Circana identifies three pivotal drivers shaping the consumer landscape in 2027 and beyond: pressured wallets, balanced living, and increasing algorithmic influence. As households navigate ongoing financial pressures, consumers are becoming more intentional about where they spend, balancing health, wellness, and enjoyment while prioritizing the outcomes they value – a shift further shaped by growing GLP-1 adoption. At the same time, expanding e-commerce engagement and emerging AI-powered shopping tools are making product discovery more informed and efficient. The result is a more selective consumer who cuts excess, right-sizes purchases, and remains willing to invest in preferred products that best align with their goals.

"Consumers are no longer simply trading down or cutting back," said Sally Lyons Wyatt, global executive vice president and chief advisor at Circana. "They are becoming more intentional and efficient. Whether through pack-size optimization, private label and brand selection, AI-assisted shopping, or reducing waste, shoppers are finding smarter ways to achieve the outcomes they want while navigating persistent financial pressures."

About Circana

Circana is a leader in providing technology, AI, and data to fast-moving consumer packaged goods companies, durables manufacturers, and retailers seeking to optimize their businesses. Circana’s predictive analytics and technology empower clients to measure their market share, understand the underlying consumer behavior driving it, and accelerate their growth. Circana’s Liquid Data^® technology platform is powered by an expansive, high-quality data set and intelligent algorithms trained on six decades of domain expertise. With Circana, clients can take immediate action to future-proof and evolve their growth strategies amid an increasingly complex, fast-paced, and ever-changing economy. Learn more at circana.com.

Circana Media Contact

Shelley Hughes

Email: shelley.hughes@circana.com

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