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Navigating Retail Spending in the Current Consumer Recession

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Marshal Cohen

Chief Retail Advisor

Rising prices in one area can cause ripple effects across other sectors, leading to a pullback in consumer spending.

  • Writer: Marshal Cohen
    Marshal Cohen
  • Jun 29, 2023
  • 2 min read

The broader U.S. economy may not be in a recession, but many consumers are experiencing their own economic downturns. The needs and expectations of budget-conscious consumers are evolving, and retailers and manufacturers need to acknowledge the shifting patterns of consumer behavior and adapt their strategies accordingly, in order to remain relevant in the current market.


Rising Price Ripple Effects

Rising prices in one area can cause ripple effects across other sectors, leading to a pullback in consumer spending. As the cost of food and other essentials continues to rise, discretionary spending takes a hit. Consumers have also become more deliberate in their purchasing decisions, shying away from the impulsive purchases that are a significant source of growth for many retailers. Just as people are keeping their vehicles longer, the lifespan of many other products is being extended as consumers are maximizing usage until the very end. Finally, the declining importance of secondary holidays, like Easter and Father’s Day, that emerged in 2022 has continued. Consumers still acknowledge these occasions, but the scale and nature of related spending have shifted.


Deliver Need, Value, and Exclusivity

Now is the time to get back to basics in terms of marketing products. Retailers and manufacturers need to help consumers recognize the value of their products, and the roles those products play in solving their specific needs. They must demonstrate the value proposition of products by offering competitive pricing, discounts, or bundled deals that resonate with cost-conscious consumers. Providing tangible benefits, such as extended warranties, loyalty programs, or free servicing, can also enhance the perceived value of product offerings. Finally, it’s important to make products seem exclusive, scarce, and harder to find elsewhere. This strategy generates a sense of urgency, compelling consumers to act quickly to secure what they want. Limited-edition releases, unique collaborations, and personalized experiences can help instill this perception.


The spending pie has gotten smaller, but the competition remains the same, which means smaller revenue slices — unless you take action to make your slice bigger. Retailers and manufacturers can position themselves for success during the ongoing consumer recession in the U.S. with awareness, acknowledgement, and action.



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About the author

Marshal Cohen is a nationally known expert on consumer behavior and the retail industry. He has followed retail trends for more than 30 years at Circana (formerly The NPD Group) and as the head of leading fashion and apparel manufacturers and major retailers.


As part of his work at Circana, Marshal leads many top firms in long-range and strategic planning sessions. He often utilizes motivational presentations to help launch corporate goals and kick-off meetings. Marshal is the author of two books, “Why Customers Do What They Do” (2006) and “Buy Me! How to Get Customers to Choose Your Products and Ignore the Rest” (2010).


In addition to his duties at Circana, Marshal is a member of several boards of directors and was appointed to the Cotton Board and American Apparel and Footwear Association (AAFA). He is also a guest professor at North Carolina State University’s Wilson College of Textiles, where he introduces students and faculty to techniques for analyzing and applying data. Marshal has been a guest lecturer at the Wharton School of Business, the Fashion Institute of Technology, and Savannah College of Art and Design. He has also twice been named to the Footwear News Power 100 list.


Marshal is a regular contributor to many major media outlets. He is frequently quoted in publications like The Wall Street Journal, The New York Times, and Women’s Wear Daily. Additionally, he appears on various television news programs, including “Today,” “Good Morning America,” and “CBS Sunday Morning,” and he has been a regular guest on Bloomberg TV and Radio. He is also a sought-after speaker at key industry events such as MAGIC, The Fairchild CEO Summits, The National Retail Federation’s (NRF) Annual Convention, and The American Apparel and Footwear Association’s (AAFA) Annual Executive Summit. Marshal was the only industry expert who appeared in the documentary, “God Save my Shoes,” produced by Caid Productions.


Marshal has held a variety of positions analyzing and interpreting Circana’s uniquely combined consumer and point-of-sale tracking services for the apparel, footwear, accessories, and sports industries. His career began in the training program at Bloomingdale’s, where he worked his way up to merchandise manager. From there, he became president of WilliWear and subsequently president of Stanley Blacker. He was also founder, owner, and president of Motive Marketing Group.


To reach Marshal Cohen for commentary, please email janine.marshall@circana.com.


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