Week-to-week fluctuations in consumer spending and pockets of change reflect uncertainty

CHICAGO, March 17, 2025 — U.S. consumers demonstrated their uncertainty through weekly ups and downs in discretionary retail spending in February, even as the overall results depicted stability. In the combined four weeks ending March 1, 2025, overall retail sales demand was flat compared to the same time in 2024, with 1% dollar growth, according to Circana™, a leading advisor on the complexity of consumer behavior. While the steady appearance of retail performance carried through topline views of discretionary general merchandise, retail food and beverage, and nonedible consumer packaged goods (CPG), underlying disruptions are emerging.

"The paralyzing effects of economic uncertainty are starting to show up in short-term interruptions in discretionary consumer spending. On top of the existing concerns around inflation and the cost of goods, consumers are being inundated by headwinds that are creating pockets of behavior changes that have yet to impact the big picture."

Marshal Cohen - Chief Retail Industry Advisor For Circana

Beyond the weekly fluctuations in discretionary spending that occurred in February, retail spending changes are developing among specific consumer groups. Circana’s recent Five in ’25 retail and consumer predictions identified the uncertainty that may be felt among U.S. Hispanic consumers this year as having the potential to create significant changes in their retail activity. Those changes have already begun to take shape, as U.S. Hispanic consumer spending declined at a greater rate than that of the rest of the consumer population in January. In addition, consumers with a household income of less than $50,000 are the ones feeling the effects of elevated prices the most, and that discomfort was reflected in a 12% decline in January spending. These consumer groups, as well as those in rural parts of the country, are starting to change their purchase behavior, and this will have an impact across both discretionary and nondiscretionary retail.

Spending is also slowing among consumers aged 55 and up, as well as among those in upper income brackets, who have been critical to bolstering retail spending for the past few years. The spending shifts among these groups will create fragility in discretionary spending first, with effects that will ultimately be felt across all of retail.

“The long list of change factors currently at play, from inflation and tariffs to weather and politics, are creating the potential for a perfect storm at retail, and the consumer is at the center of it all,” added Cohen. “In order to weather this storm, every retailer and manufacturer must remain aware of the activity both inside and outside their product and consumer sweet spots, and be prepared to make adjustments that will both calm and compel the consumer.”