Consumers pull back on purchases ahead of anticipated deals, shifting the timing of spending, but not boosting overall retail revenue.

CHICAGO, October 22, 2024 — U.S. retail spending remains stable, but consumers are making adjustments to purchase behavior, according to Circana™, a leading advisor on the complexity of consumer behavior. In the five weeks ending October 5, 2024, overall retail sales across general merchandise and consumer packaged goods (CPG) were up 3% in dollars and 1% in units compared to the same time in 2023. Discretionary general merchandise retail dollar sales declined 1%, while unit demand increased 1%. Both non-edible CPG and retail food and beverage sales revenue grew 4%, and year-over-year unit sales performance increased 1%. 

“Consumers continue to demonstrate their resilience, both in their willingness to spend when the value is there and their ability to adapt in order to maximize that value,” said Marshal Cohen, chief retail industry advisor for Circana. “There is consumer optimism ahead of the holiday shopping season, but more is needed to fuel retail growth.”

The preliminary read on this year’s fall retail promotion weeks revealed consistency both in consumer spending on discretionary general merchandise and their purchase behavior around major retail promotional weeks. While sales revenue for discretionary general merchandise* during the two weeks ending October 12, 2024, brought a lift from the two weeks preceding, that lift was aided by pre-promotion pullback in purchasing. The same pre-promotion pullback behavior has occurred during both fall and summer retail promotions over the past two years. 

In addition to a picture of consumer spending behavior, holiday indicators began to take shape in recent weeks’ performance as it relates to discretionary general merchandise. Many industries, like prestige beauty, home, auto, and office supplies, are holding at a relatively steady sales pace, which will likely continue. Encouraging signs are coming from stabilizing technology sales and the closing gap in toy industry growth. Deep declines continue in fashion categories, setting up the holiday season to fill pent-up demand in apparel, footwear, and accessories.

“While specific retailers and products may reap rewards from retailer-driven promotional events, there is less impact on overall retail sales, and the consumer emerges as the big winner,” added Cohen. “Retailers and manufacturers need to get consumers to see the importance of purchases or optimize based on their needs at every step from inquiry to intent.” 

*excluding janitorial and breakroom categories