CHICAGO – Oct. 29, 2025 – The U.S. foodservice industry continues to show resilience despite economic challenges and evolving consumer preferences. According to the latest Foodservice Market Sizing report from Circana LLC, foodservice operator spend reached $357.3 billion for the 12 months ending in June 2025, marking a 3.7% increase over the prior year. This growth was primarily driven by shifting consumer habits, with commercial foodservice playing a significant role in the industry’s expansion. Circana projects this figure will climb to $385 billion by June 2028, representing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 2.5%.

The analysis reveals a 0.9% increase in foodservice cases over the past year, with a projected CAGR of 0.8% through 2028. Non-commercial foodservice segments — such as Business and Industry, Education, and Healthcare — are set to experience robust growth during this period. Meanwhile, large-chain quick-service restaurants and independent establishments are expected to drive the most incremental dollar growth. Regionally, the Northeast — the smallest market in share of operator spend — is outpacing other areas in growth due to its delayed recovery from the pandemic. From 2025 to 2028, the region is forecasted to achieve a nearly 4% CAGR in spend, driven by expansion across both commercial and non-commercial foodservice sectors.

While total industry traffic has stabilized, indicating that “flat is the new normal,” specific pockets of the market are outperforming. Economic pressures, such as inflation and a slowing job market, have led to consumer uncertainty and a general decline in sentiment. This is causing consumers to be more selective with their dining-out dollars, often prioritizing essential purchases. However, this cautious spending behavior creates opportunities for operators that can deliver on specific consumer demands.

“Amid a challenged industry, it is crucial for manufacturers and operators to understand the nuances of where growth is happening,” said Tim Fires, president of Global Foodservice for Circana. “Consumers are navigating economic uncertainty by seeking value, quality and unique experiences. Leveraging these insights is key for strategic planning, differentiation and inspiring the innovation needed to capture spending in this evolving landscape.”

Circana’s analysis reveals several key growth drivers. Increased consumer mobility, largely due to return-to-office mandates, is creating more occasions for the foodservice industry. The fast-casual and large-chain full-service restaurant segments are benefiting as they align with consumer demand for quality, variety and a reasonable price. Furthermore, experiential dining is becoming a powerful differentiator as consumers seek more than just a meal when they choose to dine out.

Learn more about Circana’s Market Sizing, which delivers precise, comprehensive and timely data on market opportunities within the retail and foodservice industries.

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About Circana

Circana is a leader in providing technology, AI, and data to fast-moving consumer packaged goods companies, durables manufacturers, and retailers seeking to optimize their businesses. Circana’s predictive analytics and technology empower clients to measure their market share, understand the underlying consumer behavior driving it, and accelerate their growth. Circana’s Liquid Data^® technology platform is powered by an expansive, high-quality data set and intelligent algorithms trained on six decades of domain expertise. With Circana, clients can take immediate action to future-proof and evolve their growth strategies amid an increasingly complex, fast-paced, and ever-changing economy. Learn more at circana.com.

Media Contact

Shelley Hughes

Email: shelley.hughes@circana.com

312-731-1782