Consumer demand returns, higher-priced toys outperform, and licensed properties lead momentum into 2026

CHICAGO, February 3, 2026 – Following two years of stagnation and decline, the U.S. toy industry returned to growth in 2025. Total annual dollar sales grew by +6%, as average selling price (ASP) rose +4% and, notably, units sold increased +3%, according to Circana, LLC. Growth was driven by a rebound in unit demand and consumer appetite for higher-priced and licensed toys. Compared with 2020, total U.S. toy sales are now up +16%, equivalent to a +3% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) over the past five years.

“Following a flat performance in 2024, the U.S. toy industry regained its footing in 2025, fueled by renewed consumer demand and a clear shift toward higher‑value purchases,” said Juli Lennett, U.S. toys industry advisor at Circana. “The return of unit growth alongside price growth signals a healthier market, with licensed, collectible, and fandom‑driven toys continuing to outperform. At the same time, 2025 highlighted a growing polarization between value‑focused purchases and premium offerings, underscoring the importance of innovation and entertainment tie‑ins as key drivers of demand.”

Performance in 2025 was uneven across the market, with growth concentrated in a handful of supercategories, according to Circana’s Retail Tracking Service. Six of the 11 supercategories tracked by Circana posted dollar growth, led by Games & Puzzles, the largest supercategory, up +37% in dollar sales, driven primarily by Pokémon; Building Sets, up +15%, supported by licensed properties such as Formula 1; and Explorative & Other Toys, up 20%, buoyed by continued demand for NFL trading cards. Combined, these three supercategories contributed 92% of all toy industry growth in 2025. In contrast, Outdoor & Sports Toys, Plush, and Dolls were the steepest decliners, with weather disruptions in early 2025 impacting seasonal categories.

Entertainment, sports, and gaming licenses continued to underpin performance, reinforcing the role of fandom-driven purchasing in the toy aisle. Licensed properties remained a dominant force in 2025. Pokémon emerged as the top toy property, posting $2.5 billion in U.S. sales, up 87% year over year – and becoming the first property, in at least 20 years, to surpass the $2 billion mark in annual sales. More broadly speaking, six of the top 10 toy properties grew in 2025, with double-digit gains driven by entertainment tie-ins, sports licensing, and video game-related franchises. 

With higher price-points gaining market share, consumers indicated a willingness to spend more per item in 2025. While entry-level and mid-priced toys softened, higher price tiers accelerated. Toys priced $30–$69.99 grew 18% year over year, the fastest of any segment. Segments priced $20 and above collectively gained nearly four points of dollar share. Lower-priced segments under $5 and the $15–$19.99 range posted the steepest declines. This shift supported overall ASP growth and reflected demand for premium, feature-rich, and collectible products.

“The U.S. toy industry enters 2026 with solid momentum, supported by licensing, collectibles, and a strong content pipeline, but with meaningful uncertainties ahead,” said Lennett. “While tariffs have not yet materially impacted prices for consumers, their downstream effects remain unpredictable, layered with other factors such as inflation, credit pressure, and consumer confidence shaping discretionary spending. The brands best positioned to win will be those that activate demand through licensing and innovation, balance fandom with evergreen play, create emotional resonance with consumers, and build communities that turn enthusiasm into sustained demand.”

About Circana Circana is a leader in providing technology, AI, and data to fast-moving consumer packaged goods companies, durables manufacturers, and retailers seeking to optimize their businesses. Circana’s predictive analytics and technology empower clients to measure their market share, understand the underlying consumer behavior driving it, and accelerate their growth. Circana’s Liquid Data® technology platform is powered by an expansive, high-quality data set, and intelligent algorithms trained on six decades of domain expertise. With Circana, clients can take immediate action to future-proof and evolve their growth strategies amid an increasingly complex, fast-paced, and ever-changing economy.   

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Marissa Guyduy

Senior Manager, Public Relations

Circana