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U.S. Toy Industry Shows a Softening Decline in Early 2024, Thanks to the Adults, Circana Reports

  • Writer: Circana
    Circana
  • Jun 6, 2024
  • 3 min read

Consumers ages 18 and older accounted for more toy sales in Q1 than any other age group, surpassing preschoolers for the first time


CHICAGO, June 6, 2024 Circana™, the leading advisor on the complexity of consumer behavior, today announced the U.S. toy retail sales performance results for January through April 2024, revealing insights into the retail trends, performance drivers, and evolving consumer behaviors. Toy industry dollar sales declined by 1% through April, versus the same period in 2023, and outperformed the broader general merchandise sector. Furthermore, toy sales remain 38% ahead of 2019 levels, which equates to $2 billion.

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Three of the 11 supercategories posted dollar growth including building sets, led by LEGO Icons; explorative toys, driven by Miniverse; and vehicles, driven by Monster Jam. Coinciding with seasonal boosts from Valentine’s Day and Easter, building sets, plush, and outdoor and sports toys experienced year over year growth based on units sold.

Looking at the overall top-selling toys across the industry for the four-month period, Squishmallows dominated the list of the top 10 selling items. Trading cards led pack for the top 10 new items for 2024 through April, with a heavy emphasis on sports.


Top Selling Toys: YTD April 2024

Rank

Top Items

Top New Items*

1

Squishmallows Plush 8″ Assortment

NBA 2023 24 Prizm Basketball Blaster Box

2

Hot Wheels Singles 1:64 Assortment

Disney Classic Lilo And Stitch

3

Squishmallows Plush 16″ Assortment

NFL Absolute Trading Football Blaster 2023

4

Icons Bouquet Of Roses

Pokémon Scarlet And Violet Paldean Fates Collection Tin

5

Icons Tiny Plants

Pokémon Scarlet And Violet Temporal Forces Elite Trainer Box Iron Leaves

6

Squishmallows Plush 12″ Assortment

NFL 2023 Absolute Football Mega Box

7

Pokémon Scarlet And Violet Paldean Fates Pokémon Center Elite Trainer Box

Pokémon Scarlet And Violet Temporal Forces Sleeved Booster Packs Assortment

8

NFL 2023 Trading Cards Assortment

NFL 2023 Prizm Football Hanger Box

9

Squishmallows Plush 11″ Assortment

Star Wars R2 D2 25th Anniversary

10

Prizm NFL 2023 Football Trading Card Blaster Box 24 Cards

Disney Lorcana Into The Inklands Booster Pack

Source: Circana, Retail Tracking Service, U.S. Toys, dollars not adjusted, January-April 2024 *New = no sales in 2023


More adults are getting in on the funThe adult toy market has been a hot topic since the pandemic and continues to be an opportunistic area. Adults ages 18 and older contributed over $1.5 billion in sales in the first quarter alone – overtaking the 3- to 5-year-old segment to become the most important age group for the toy industry2. In fact, 43% of adults purchased a toy for themselves in the past year, with the top reasons being for socialization, enjoyment, and collecting3.


“We are in a transformative period across retail sectors as consumers navigate high prices and manage their budgets, and while the toy industry is feeling the heat, it is ripe with opportunity,” said Juli Lennett, vice president and toy industry advisor at Circana. “Tailwinds, like the growing adult toy market and spending power of higher income households and grandparents, drive positive trends. However, headwinds like rising household debt, slowing GDP growth, and fluctuating consumer confidence indicate potential challenges. By focusing on innovation and addressing diverse consumer needs, the industry can find the propensity to thrive despite an evolving economic environment.”


Source: Circana, Retail Tracking Service, U.S. Toys, January – April 2024

2 Source: Circana, Checkout Recipient Insights, U.S. Toys, January – March 2024

3 Source: Circana, U.S. Omnibus, May 2024

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Three of the 11 supercategories posted dollar growth including building sets, led by LEGO Icons

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