Refresh cycles and innovation present industry opportunity amid economic headwinds putting pressure on consumer spending

CHICAGO — July 24, 2025 — The pull-forward consumer purchasing that supported revenue gains in the U.S. consumer technology market during the first half of 2025 has waned, and is expected to result in softer second-half results. Overall consumer technology retail dollar sales grew 1.5% in the six months ending June 2025, according to retail tracking from Circana™. The latest Future of Consumer Technology report forecasts full-year sales revenue for the industry will finish 1% above 2024 as the impact of early pull-forward purchasing is realized alongside a pull-back on spending by consumers.

“Technology came to the forefront of consumer purchase decisions early in the year, with a big emphasis on IT products as the PC market is entering a refresh cycle,” said Paul Gagnon, vice president and technology industry advisor for Circana. “However, that early boost is likely to weigh negatively on the second half as the trade-down behavior seen already from cost-conscious consumers in some product categories expands its reach.”

First-half sales gains came primarily from pull-forward purchasing that occurred in March and April, resulting in year-over-year growth exceeding 6%. Notebook and desktop PCs represented a major piece of that growth, with dollar increases of 8% and 18% respectively. The pull-forward effect that bolstered PC sales those two months waned in May and June. 

The first-half spending that bolstered PCs did not extend throughout the tech market. Categories like televisions felt the impact of trade-down behavior in the first half of this year. Consumers demonstrated higher unit demand for TVs but opted for lower price alternatives, resulting in a 2% increase in unit demand, but a 3% decline in sales revenue for the category. However, innovation and new form factors gaining acceptance supported strong growth in categories like smart glasses and smart rings, to the tune of nearly triple or quadruple last year’s sales revenue. Similarly, demand for more retro products like digital point-and-shoot cameras contributed to dollar gains of more than 40% in the first half of 2025.

Looking ahead, consumer technology sales are forecast to grow 1% for the full year compared to 2024, with softer second-half growth and flat Q4 holiday shopping season performance. Computers will remain a growth area to watch in the second half, and TV demand will slow but remain up slightly with a decline in dollars. Home entertainment is an affordable alternative to away-from-home options like concerts, movies and sporting events, which makes an upgrade investment to a larger TV attractive to many consumers. Dollar sales of televisions 75 inches and larger will grow by a double-digit rate in the second half of 2025, despite a slowdown in sales of smaller sizes. According to a recent Circana consumer survey, consumers will prioritize spending if prices rise. Products like soundbars and smartwatches will be lower on the priority list than others, resulting in expected spending declines in 2025.

“Economic uncertainty and persistent inflation will pressure consumer spending, but planned tech upgrade cycles are expected to underpin demand resiliency for many categories,” added Gagnon. “The consumer will be more focused on affordability, even if it means trading down more frequently to offset any individual product price increases.”

Circana’s Future of™ is a series of industry-specific forecasts and insights that incorporate Circana’s data assets, deep industry advisor expertise, macroeconomic inputs, superior technology and advanced analytic modeling techniques.