Season-to-date discretionary general merchandise spending remains 3% below last year following strong promotion peaks

CHICAGO, December 19, 2024 — U.S. discretionary general merchandise spending at retail over the combined weeks of Black Friday and Cyber Monday increased 3.7% compared to the same promotional weeks last year. Until the 9% dollar decline that resulted from distraction related to the U.S. presidential election, discretionary spending was running around 3% below last year. Now, following the early November dip and promotional peaks, Q4 discretionary spending through December 14, 2024, is back to that same baseline established over a year ago, with a year-over-year decline of 3% in both unit demand and dollar sales, according to Circana™, a leading advisor on the complexity of consumer behavior. 

“Timing is everything. Thanksgiving 2024 occurred a week later than Thanksgiving 2023, creating significant disruption, not only in the timing of the traditional sales peaks related to Black Friday and Cyber Monday promotions, but also in the number of shopping days that follow, leading up to Christmas,” said Marshal Cohen, chief retail industry advisor for Circana. “The measurement of this holiday season is very different this year, but the consumer’s behavior remains stable.”

This year’s Black Friday week discretionary general merchandise unit and dollar sales were up 2%, and Cyber Monday week sales were up 5%. Surpassing last year’s promotional week performance, which fell short of the year prior, was the first test for this holiday shopping season. Black Friday 2024 beat Black Friday 2023 and aligned with 2022 and 2021 performances. Cyber Monday 2024 resumed the momentum of prior years.

As revealed in Circana’s annual Holiday Purchase Intentions study, fewer consumers plan to wait till the last minute to embark on their holiday shopping than last year. However, opportunity remains among those feeling the frenzy of this year’s abbreviated post-Thanksgiving shopping timeline, and the 5% of holiday shoppers who planned early on to wait till late December to get started.

“The next test of Holiday 2024 is maximizing the shortened shopping period, limiting the post-Cyber Week lull, and making sure this year’s single Super Saturday is big enough to offset last year’s double-Saturday shopping event,” added Cohen. “Amid the race to the finish, marketers are smart to extend their thinking, as this season is presenting lessons that will be critical in planning for Holiday 2025.”