More than one-third expect to pay more, but will purchase the same amount anyway

CHICAGO – Nov. 2, 2023 – Circana™, the leading advisor on the complexity of consumer behavior, today released its first Thanksgiving Tracker, offering vital insights into anticipated consumer behavior and purchasing trends for 2023 and looking back at similar trends from 2022. This comprehensive analysis will enable manufacturers, retailers and media organizations to make more informed decisions about merchandising and promotions to drive growth and profitability during the Thanksgiving season.

The week prior to and the week of Thanksgiving are critical sales drivers, although consumers also shop early for spot deals. While inflation of the Thanksgiving basket has eased to an increase of 1.7% since 2022, consumers are unlikely to notice, given the 27.4% jump in prices since 2019. Trends for 2023 revealed in the new Circana report include:

1. 79% report they and their families will celebrate Thanksgiving with the usual traditions

2. 34% of those who plan to celebrate state they expect to pay more for groceries, but will purchase the same amount as last year

3. 44% of Generation Z and younger Millennials will be looking for deals, the largest percentage among all shopper cohorts

“Manufacturers and retailers have the opportunity to help consumers, many of whom continue to buy on deal, and celebrate Thanksgiving as they always have by understanding their specific needs and targeting promotions effectively,” said Joan Driggs, vice president, Content and Thought Leadership, Circana. “There is also significant value in gaining a complete view of consumers and their purchasing strategies, such as plans to source dishes from both home and retail as well as restaurant and foodservice.”

Thanksgiving provided an enormous $2.8 billion sales lift in 2022 compared to the average week, the second largest food holiday of the year, surpassed only by the Christmas sales lift of $6.2 billion. Additional trends that occurred in 2022 that Circana expects to continue this year include:

1. 79% of the total four-week Thanksgiving sales uplift took place in the week prior to and the week of Thanksgiving

2. The Thanksgiving basket of 30 categories drove $2.1 billion or 75% of the sales uplift, despite representing only 9% of sales for those weeks

3. The percent of sales sold on promotion for last year’s Thanksgiving basket almost doubled to 50%, but the average depth of discount was similar to the rest of the year

4. 10% of Thanksgiving meal occasions had an item sourced from a restaurant or foodservice

Download Circana's ThanksGiving Tracker