- Joe Derochowski
- 5 hours ago
- 2 min read
CHICAGO, March 10, 2026 – The U.S. home durables industry closed out 2025 with a 1% decline in retail sales revenue, but a return to growth is on the horizon. Circana, LLC today released its updated U.S. forecast for the home products industry in the latest Future of Home report, revealing key expectations for the home durables industry through 2028. While the U.S. home durables sector is projected to experience a modest decline in 2026, renewed momentum is expected to begin in the fourth quarter of 2026 and continuing into the following years.
“Despite the economic pressures felt by U.S. consumers this past year, annual spending on home durables remained generally stable in 2025 – despite a challenging back half – on the heels of steady year-over-year growth,” said Joe Derochowski, home industry advisor, Circana. “Broader economic indicators may continue to create headwinds through much of 2026, but they also present category-specific opportunities, particularly as consumers continue to eat, entertain, and clean at home.”
According to the latest analysis, dollar sales for the total U.S. home durables industry are expected to soften by 1.2% in 2026, reaching approximately $41.8 billion, as unit volume declines 4.9%, or roughly 100 million units. Despite this pullback, the industry is poised for stabilization in 2027 and a gradual improvement through 2028, when sales are expected to rise to $43.4 billion.
Economic and Consumer Forces Shape Near-Term Performance
The forecast reflects several evolving market dynamics, including greater clarity on pricing trends, interest rate expectations, and shifting consumer behaviors. Circana anticipates average selling prices (ASPs) to increase by 3.9% in 2026, largely influenced by price elevation and moderated consumer demand. Although higher prices will offset some unit declines, consumers remain focused on essentials and replacement-driven purchases, particularly for items originally bought in 2020 and 2021.
Evolving everyday needs and elevated sources of innovation will be the basis of growth in the coming year for categories like portable beverageware, traditional food storage, compact deep carpet cleaners, espresso makers, stick vacuums, fans, single-serve brewing systems, and stand mixers. Conversely, the anticipated declines reflect shifting consumer priorities.
“Stabilizing unit trends and normalized pricing will support a healthier, more balanced growth trajectory beyond 2026,” adds Derochowski. “The home durables industry remains resilient, and that resilience will be bolstered by evolving consumer routines and lifestyle needs, reengaged replacement cycles, convenience and innovation.”
About Circana
Circana is a leader in providing technology, AI, and data to fast-moving consumer packaged goods companies, durables manufacturers, and retailers seeking to optimize their businesses. Circana’s predictive analytics and technology empower clients to measure their market share, understand the underlying consumer behavior driving it, and accelerate their growth. Circana’s Liquid Data® technology platform is powered by an expansive, high-quality data set, and intelligent algorithms trained on six decades of domain expertise. With Circana, clients can take immediate action to future-proof and evolve their growth strategies amid an increasingly complex, fast-paced, and ever-changing economy.
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