CHICAGO, June 15, 2026 — The U.S. toy industry is off to a strong start in 2026, posting +13% dollar growth through April, versus the same period last year – an acceleration compared to the 2025 trend, according to Circana, LLC. Unit sales increased by +5%, while average selling price (ASP) grew by +7%. The strong performance of toys stands out against a backdrop of softer demand across most discretionary categories in early 2026.

“The toy industry’s promising start to 2026 reflects a unique intersection of resilient demand and evolving consumer behavior,” said Kristen McLean, vice president of client insights for Circana’s Entertainment Knowledge Group. “Growth is being driven by enthusiasm for trading cards, collectibles, and licensed properties across age groups, reinforcing toys as a bright spot despite broader pressure on discretionary spending.”

Licensed, pop culture-driven products remain central to performance

Seven of the 11 supercategories posted dollar gains, with the majority posting growth in dollars, units, and ASP, according to Circana’s Retail Tracking Service. The top-performing segments were games and puzzles (+39%), driven by Pokémon; explorative and other toys (+36%), led by Major League Baseball (MLB) and NeeDoh; and building sets (+20%), driven by LEGO Botanicals and Formula 1 – collectively highlighting the outsized role of collectibles and hobby-oriented play.

Adult women are driving the most growth

Toy sales for all ages and genders grew, but more than 50% of overall industry growth came from female recipients. In general, toy consumption continues to be driven by adult recipients; consumers aged 18+ accounted for 35% of total industry growth through April.  

Consumers are trading up despite price sensitivity

The toy market is seeing a clear shift toward mid-tier and premium price bands, while entry-level price points are under pressure. This trend mirrors broader retail dynamics, where higher prices and more selective spending are driving revenue gains even as unit growth remains more moderate.

Social, squeezable, and satisfying: sensory toy sales surge 

Sensory-driven play continues to be a standout growth driver within the toy industry, with squishy toys seeing significant momentum in 2026. Squishy toys delivered triple-digit growth this year through April, in terms of both dollars and units sold.

This growth is being amplified by the influence of social media and emerging commerce platforms. In just two years, TikTok Shop has grown to represent 1% of total retail sales and 3% of e-commerce sales, with toys, hobbies, and collectibles ranking as the third-largest category on the platform, according to Circana’s Social Commerce Tracking data. Viral products are increasingly shaping demand, as seen with the rapid rise of NeeDoh and similar squishy formats. 

“Strong retail performance and social-driven discovery are transforming sensory toys from a niche segment into a scalable growth category,” said McLean. “Fueled by ASMR content, unboxing videos, and the excitement of hunting for limited editions, these products are resonating with consumers across age groups and reinforcing the growing influence of social commerce on toy demand.”

About Circana

Circana is a leader in providing technology, AI, and data to fast-moving consumer packaged goods companies, durables manufacturers, and retailers seeking to optimize their businesses. Circana’s predictive analytics and technology empower clients to measure their market share, understand the underlying consumer behavior driving it, and accelerate their growth. Circana’s Liquid Data® technology platform is powered by an expansive, high-quality data set, and intelligent algorithms trained on six decades of domain expertise. With Circana, clients can take immediate action to future-proof and evolve their growth strategies amid an increasingly complex, fast-paced, and ever-changing economy.   

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Marissa Guyduy

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Circana