Circana forecasts steady expansion in 2026, with organised and branded players gaining share

Europe -  20^th April 2026 – Global foodservice is set for continued expansion, with total spend across the U.S. and Europe forecast to grow by 3% in 2026 according to the latest insights from Circana. Reinforcing its role as a key growth engine for manufacturers, retailers and operators, the foodservice market is experiencing structural shifts and evolving consumer behaviours which are reshaping how and where consumers eat.

At the international trade show, Alimentaria, Circana’s Edurne Uranga, VP Foodservice Europe and David Portalatin, VP & Chief Advisor, Consumer Goods & Foodservice Insights, addressed the long‑standing industry belief that developments in the US market often transcend at a later point in Europe. Uranga commented: “…The reality is more nuanced. The two markets share common dynamics, particularly the blurring of channels as new touchpoints emerge to capture immediate consumption occasions, but diverge in important structural ways.”

Uranga highlighted how:

• In the U.S., convenience stores are at the forefront of the shift in channels, whereas in Europe, supermarkets and hypermarkets are accelerating the development of ready-to-eat solutions.

• Consumption patterns are moving in similar directions albeit at different paces: on-premise dining is recovering in the U.S – to the detriment of drive-thru and takeaway for in-home dining, while out-of-home consumption continues to expand in Europe (now accounting for 45% of total foodservice spend Vs 75% in the US).

• Chain restaurants play very different roles, dominating the US market (78%) while remaining underpenetrated in Europe (45%). Despite growing at a faster rate than in the U.S., chain penetration in Europe is still significantly lower, highlighting substantial headroom expansion and a clear opportunity for U.S. chains to scale into European markets.

• One trend is consistent across both regions: consumer expectations have shifted away from price, function and loyalty, with growth now increasingly tied to an experience: the desire for more variety, more nutritionally attractive options, and the excitement of discovering new places and new menus.

The road ahead

Taking the structural differences in ownership identified above into account, Circana identified the major global trends that are currently shaping – and will continue to shape – foodservice in Europe in 2026 and beyond:

The Liquid Revolution

What until recently could be described as a silent revolution is now becoming increasingly loud and visible across Europe. There is a beverage transformation taking place that will represent one of the defining growth trends of the coming months, and is one area where the U.S. market behaviour acts as an effective consumer radar, helping to anticipate the scale and direction of change in Europe.

In Europe 14% of visits are beverage-only compared with the surge of growth (45%) being experienced in the U.S., though this measure is rising steadily as operators invest in premium coffee, functional drinks, and low/no-alcohol options.

Uranga commented: “Looking ahead, the next major wave of this Liquid Revolution will be the arrival of modern sodas in Europe. These are refreshing beverages with functional benefits,  such as magnesium or zinc content, or claims linked to energy, focus and wellbeing, that align closely with evolving health and lifestyle motivations. This will not only translate into new menu development within existing foodservice concepts, but, as already seen in the US, is likely to trigger the emergence of entirely new foodservice chains built exclusively around these drink‑led propositions, similar to concepts such as Swig, Fiiz, Fixxology or Twisted Sugar.”

The Anytime Consumption era 

European Foodservice consumption (consistent across all countries) is driven by reflecting more flexible consumption habits and on-the-go lifestyles.

Common across both regions, however, is a structural shift in consumption behaviour. Foodservice demand is progressively delocalising from traditional, core occasions such as lunch and dinner, and expanding into in‑between moments - mid‑morning, brunch and mid‑afternoon - which are now among the fastest‑growing dayparts.

Uranga commented: “This acceleration is being fuelled by new, healthier lifestyles, more daytime‑oriented routines, flexible working patterns and evolving consumer attitudes towards grazing, personal wellbeing and energy management throughout the day. As a result, consumption is no longer anchored to formal meals, but increasingly distributed across multiple, smaller occasions.

Together, these dynamics are giving rise to a new ocean of consumption occasions, creating substantial and incremental growth opportunities for selected beverage and snacking categories, particularly those that can credibly tap into functionality, balance, indulgence‑without‑guilt and convenience.”

Eating with intent

Health and purpose-driven consumption is reshaping menus and occasions. 40% of Europeans follow a specific diet, rising to 58% among Gen Z and younger Millennials. High-protein and low-calorie diets dominate, while 24% of consumers report switching venues due to a lack of suitable options. Functional food and beverages supporting energy, immunity, and weight management, are among the fastest-growing segments.

“As foodservice continues to evolve, restaurants and brands must rethink how they deliver value in a much broader sense so that every Euro spent feels worth it for consumers,” concluded Uranga. “At the same time, the sector should look at how revamping menus will help tap into new consumption patterns in a way that feels locally relevant for the consumption occasion and channel. Those who can strike that balance will be best positioned to win in the next phase of foodservice growth.”

Sources include:

• CPG Market measurement US and BIG5 EU, CREST consumer panel

• Circana, CREST ® consumer panel | 12M Dec2025

• Circana -Foodservice Sentiment Study Europe, January 2026

• Circana -Foodservice Sentiment Study W17, BIG5, January 2026

• Circana/Complete Wallet Jan 2023-June 2025 (analysis time-aligned to users' GLP-1 start date)

About Circana

Circana is a leader in providing technology, AI, and data to fast-moving consumer packaged goods companies, durables manufacturers, and retailers seeking to optimize their businesses. Circana’s predictive analytics and technology empower clients to measure their market share, understand the underlying consumer behaviour driving it, and accelerate their growth. Circana’s Liquid Data® technology platform is powered by an expansive, high-quality data set and intelligent algorithms trained on six decades of domain expertise. With Circana, clients can take immediate action to future-proof and evolve their growth strategies amid an increasingly complex, fast-paced, and ever-changing economy. Learn more at circana.com.