CHICAGO, September 24, 2026 – As consumers navigate continued economic pressures, the home is playing an increasingly important role as a place to save money, find convenience, and enjoy everyday experiences. According to the latest Future of Home forecast from Circana, LLC, U.S. home-industry dollar sales are expected to grow to $43.7 billion in 2026, up 2.9% from 2025, even as unit demand remains pressured. Higher average selling prices, replacement demand, innovation, and evolving consumer routines are supporting growth. Circana expects many of the drivers shaping today’s home-products market to remain in place and fuel further growth through 2027, reaching more than $45.6 billion in 2028.
Consumers are not simply cutting back. They are prioritizing products that deliver value at home, from preparing meals and beverages to cleaning and maintaining their homes. At the same time, heavily used products purchased in 2020 and 2021 are beginning to enter replacement cycles.
“When consumers feel the financial pinch, they tend to eat more meals at home, which can be four to five times cheaper than dining out. Similarly, entertaining at home becomes more common as a cost-saving measure,” said Joe Derochowski, home industry advisor, Circana. “Additionally, we anticipate that frequently used items purchased in 2020 and 2021 will begin to be replaced over the next few years.”
Convenience and premium experiences drive kitchen growth
Kitchen appliances are expected to be a key contributor to home-industry growth in 2026. Air fryer dollar sales are forecast to grow 15.6% and espresso makers 16.5%, together generating approximately $245 million in incremental sales compared with 2025. Rice cookers are projected to grow 11.4%, slow cookers 8.6%, and cooking gadgets 5.2%.
Air fryers also demonstrate that growth extends beyond replacement. Among recent air-fryer purchasers surveyed, 49% said the product was a new addition, versus 27% who were replacing an existing item and 24% who were upgrading or adding another.
Pandemic-era purchases enter the replacement cycle
Replacement demand is becoming an important growth driver as products purchased during 2020 and 2021 age. Among recent purchasers surveyed, 65% of microwave purchasers, 61% of electric coffee-maker purchasers, and 54% of upright-vacuum purchasers were replacing an existing item.
The trend extends to major appliances, where half of recent purchases were replacements. Of recently replaced major appliances, 38% were just one to five years old, up 9 percentage points from August 2025, signaling that replacement is increasingly reaching newer products.
Consumers remain selective, but willing to spend for value
Despite economic uncertainty, most consumers surveyed still plan to proceed with many intended home purchases. This includes 62% of microwave purchasers, 59% of cookware purchasers, and 58% of food-storage purchasers.
This selective spending is also benefiting products that address cleaning, comfort, and convenience. Robotic vacuum dollar sales are forecast to grow 9.1% in 2026, fans 7.1%, and stick vacuums 5.9%. Meanwhile, 54% of surveyed consumers said spending more time at home has led them to clean more often or more deeply, up 4 percentage points from a year ago.
“What we’re seeing is not a consumer who has stopped spending, but one who is spending with greater intention,” adds Derochowski. “Consumers continue to invest in products that help them save money, simplify routines, improve comfort, and get more value from life at home. As replacement cycles accelerate and innovation continues, we expect those behaviors to support growth opportunities across the home-products market for years to come.”
About Circana
Circana is a leader in providing technology, AI, and data to fast-moving consumer packaged goods companies, durables manufacturers, and retailers seeking to optimize their businesses. Circana’s predictive analytics and technology empower clients to measure their market share, understand the underlying consumer behavior driving it, and accelerate their growth. Circana’s Liquid Data® technology platform is powered by an expansive, high-quality data set, and intelligent algorithms trained on six decades of domain expertise. With Circana, clients can take immediate action to future-proof and evolve their growth strategies amid an increasingly complex, fast-paced, and ever-changing economy.
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