By Jonathan Dizney, VP, Global Measurement Media Consulting, Circana
And Tsvetan “T” Tsvetkov SVP, Head of Global Measurement Consulting, Circana
Advertisers should prepare for Holiday 2026 by starting media earlier, funding social and creator discovery, readying product data for AI shopping assistants, and measuring business outcomes across channels. Those are the four recommendations in Circana's 2026 media holiday report, How Advertisers Should Prepare for Holiday 2026. The report draws on Circana consumer data, ShopperSights and social commerce data. This page covers the five trends behind those recommendations and the playbook itself, for brand, media and retail media teams planning fourth-quarter spend.
Key takeaways
Nearly one-half of consumers, 48%, browsed before Thanksgiving in 2025, and 44% planned to shop earlier overall, according to Circana's Annual Holiday Survey from October 2025.
81% of consumers shopped online during the 2025 holiday period, and 47% used a smartphone to browse and buy, according to the same survey.
Circana estimates TikTok Shop has influenced about 1% of total U.S. retail sales and 3% of ecommerce sales.
25% of consumers reported using an AI recommendation to purchase a consumer packaged goods (CPG) product, according to a Circana Shopper Survey from March 2026.
28.5% of Gen Z and 26.6% of millennials plan to shop on Black Friday, according to Circana ShopperSights U.S.
What the 2025 holiday season tells advertisers about 2026
Consumers are likely to carry last year's habits into this season. Retail grew 2% in dollars in 2025 with flat unit demand, and economic conditions remain uncertain because of pressures such as energy costs and global volatility. Under that pressure, many shoppers started earlier. Circana's Annual Holiday Survey from October 2025 shows that 48% of consumers browsed before Thanksgiving. The number shifting into early November rose three percentage points from the prior year, and 44% planned to shop earlier overall.
Shopping also spread across more channels. Circana data shows 81% of consumers shopped online during the 2025 holiday period, and 47% used a smartphone to browse and buy. Consumers took ideas and inspiration from TikTok, YouTube and Instagram, then moved between digital storefronts and physical stores. Because nearly half of shoppers start before the traditional kickoff, a media plan that begins at Thanksgiving reaches them after their holiday shopping is already under way.
Five trends set to shape Holiday 2026 for advertisers
1. Festive feeds: holiday discovery now starts in social feeds
The holiday shopping journey increasingly starts in a social feed rather than a store aisle or a search bar. Consumers scroll, watch and save products long before they intend to buy. A majority of social media users, 50.1%, are also expected to be social buyers, which means most people discover and transact in the same environment. TikTok Shop shows how quickly this has scaled: it has reached an estimated $6.5 billion in U.S. sales, and Circana estimates it has influenced about 1% of total U.S. retail sales and 3% of ecommerce sales. Brands that fund discovery as its own budget line reach shoppers before competitors enter the consideration set.
2. Influencers as inspiration: shoppers follow people, not brands
Holiday shoppers increasingly take product cues from creators rather than from brands directly. Creators now work as both a media channel and a recommendation source. Circana data shows the influencer economy has grown into a $31 billion market, and 92% of Gen Z shoppers are more likely to purchase because of influencer impact. For holiday planning, creator partnerships belong in the core media budget, because creator content builds interest weeks before a purchase.
3. Earlier demand signals: leading indicators replace the sales report
A sales report shows demand only after a transaction registers, which is too late to influence it. Brands and retailers can read holiday demand earlier, starting in late summer, through five leading signals:
Engagement patterns that reveal intent, including saves, shares and comments
Influencer content that lays the groundwork for interest weeks ahead of purchase
Social commerce activity that signals category momentum in real time
AI-assisted queries that expose what consumers are researching
Retail media performance that surfaces early conversion behavior
Read together, these signals let marketers focus on business outcomes rather than channels, and allocate holiday investment before the season peaks rather than after it fades.
4. AI as a shopping companion: assistants now shape the shortlist
AI has moved from novelty to utility in the shopping journey. A Circana Shopper Survey from March 2026 found that 25% of consumers used an AI recommendation to purchase a CPG product. During busy holiday weeks, shoppers use AI assistants to compare products, generate gift ideas, summarize reviews and shortlist options. AI is not replacing shopping, but it is changing how discovery works.
As assistants filter and rank options, visibility depends on machine-readable relevance as well as shelf placement. That makes product data quality a holiday priority. Agentic commerce, where AI agents research or complete purchases for a shopper, raises the stakes further, because an agent can repeat errors in product data at scale.
5. Younger consumers on a mission: Gen Z and millennials shop across more days
Gen Z and younger millennials are changing holiday buying patterns, according to Circana ShopperSights U.S. data. Both groups are more likely than older generations to shop on Thanksgiving Day, and both spread their shopping across more days:
28.5% of Gen Z and 26.6% of millennials plan to shop on Black Friday
18.1% of Gen Z expect to split Black Friday shopping evenly between stores and online
12.7% of Gen Z and 12.9% of millennials are likely to browse for more than one day, compared with 8.1% of other generations
Both groups over-index on shopping exclusively or mostly in stores
These shoppers also lead social commerce adoption and treat AI-assisted shopping as a default rather than an experiment. Brands that plan for their habits are planning for where the wider market is heading.
Holiday 2026 by the numbers
Finding | Figure | Source |
Consumers who browsed before Thanksgiving | 48% | Circana, Annual Holiday Survey, October 2025 |
Consumers who planned to shop earlier overall | 44% | Circana, Annual Holiday Survey, October 2025 |
Consumers who shopped online during the 2025 holiday period | 81% | Circana, Annual Holiday Survey, October 2025 |
Consumers who used a smartphone to browse and buy | 47% | Circana, Annual Holiday Survey, October 2025 |
2025 retail growth | 2% in dollars, flat units | Circana retail tracking |
Social media users also expected to be social buyers | 50.1% | Circana social commerce and EMARKETER, U.S. Social Commerce Forecast 2026 |
TikTok Shop influence on U.S. sales | About 1% of retail, 3% of ecommerce | Circana estimate |
Influencer economy | $31 billion | Circana |
Gen Z shoppers more likely to purchase because of influencer impact | 92% | Circana |
Consumers who used an AI recommendation to buy a CPG product | 25% | Circana Shopper Survey, March 2026 |
Gen Z and millennials planning to shop on Black Friday | 28.5% and 26.6% | Circana ShopperSights U.S. |
Likely to browse for more than one day: Gen Z, millennials, other generations | 12.7%, 12.9%, 8.1% | Circana ShopperSights U.S. |
How advertisers should prepare: the Holiday 2026 media playbook
The report turns the five trends into four steps for the selling season, which runs from November through early January.
Build discovery into the holiday strategy. Discovery now begins in feeds and communities, so fund creators, social commerce and retail media as core holiday infrastructure. Treat these channels as demand generators, not add-ons.
Recognize demand before purchase. Track engagement, creator activity, AI-assisted queries and search behavior as leading indicators. Acting on them early lets a brand advertise before the traditional ad-heavy period, when there is less competition for attention and salience is cheaper to build.
Prepare for AI-assisted shopping. AI readiness is now holiday readiness. Structure product data, keep content consistent across touchpoints, and optimize the catalog so AI assistants can surface, understand and recommend products.
Measure business outcomes, not channel performance. Individual channel metrics hide how channels work together. Connect retail media, AI, ecommerce, in-store and creator results through connected measurement, and judge them against business outcomes. Retailers can also use custom holiday measurement to inform retail media upfronts and secure high-demand placements.
What Circana measurement leaders recommend
Both recommendations below follow from the same point. Holiday shoppers move across retailers and channels, so results from one retail media network (RMN) or one channel understate what media is doing.
"In competitive categories, decide your peak season and how early to lead in with media, usually two to four weeks of buildup."
Jonathan Dizney, VP, Global Measurement Media Consulting, Circana
"Ask your media network if they can measure beyond their own four walls. Total market measurement is critical to understand the true impact of your media, especially during holiday season when cross-retailer shopping behavior increases."
Moody Khan, VP, RMN Measurement Strategy, Circana
What industry leaders said at Cannes Lions 2026
Circana interviewed leaders from Google, Walmart Connect, L'Oréal and CVS Media Exchange at Cannes Lions 2026. Each came to measurement from a different position, but all four reached the same conclusions. Causal methods are becoming the standard. Platform self-reporting is not enough. Incrementality is the clearest test. Short-term and long-term measurement must coexist.
Google: the industry is moving from correlation to causal measurement, and measurement interoperability has to be solved for unified measurement to work in practice. Read: Google Meridian and the Shift to Causal Measurement
Walmart Connect: consistent cross-channel methods and incrementality show what drove a sale and lifted business results. Read: Walmart Connect on Incrementality and the Next Phase of Retail Media
L'Oréal: across its global brand portfolio, creative has to be measured as a driver of return. The most durable results come from investments that serve the years beyond the season. Read: L'Oréal on Marketing Effectiveness
CVS Media Exchange: fragmented media creates fragmented measurement, and the store is still where most transactions close. About 94% of customers who enter a CVS Pharmacy store leave with a purchase, according to CVS. Read: CVS on Retail Media Measurement and the Fragmented Funnel
Download the full report
The full report adds partner research from Meta, The Trade Desk, Snapchat and Reddit, plus a longer look at the Cannes Lions 2026 interviews.
To review your holiday media plan, contact a Circana measurement consultant:
For consumer spending intentions by category, see Circana's 2025 U.S. Holiday Purchase Intentions report.
Revisit your holiday media plans
Holiday shoppers aren't standing still, and plans built months ago may need a second look. As the 2026 season unfolds, advertisers will need to monitor the latest sales, shopper, and media signals to understand how demand is developing, which is what makes Circana's upcoming 2026 Holiday Purchase Intentions report a critical resource for refining holiday plans in real time. Circana’s 2026 U.S. Holiday Purchase Intentions report publishes in October 2026.
Frequently asked questions
When does holiday shopping start in 2026?
Before Thanksgiving for nearly half of shoppers. Circana's Annual Holiday Survey from October 2025 found 48% of consumers browsed before Thanksgiving and 44% planned to shop earlier overall. Meta's holiday research places the start of the 2026 season in early October, with promotional windows running through Black Friday and into the new year.
How are shoppers using AI for holiday shopping?
Shoppers use AI assistants to compare products, generate gift ideas, summarize reviews and shortlist options. A Circana Shopper Survey from March 2026 found 25% of consumers used an AI recommendation to purchase a CPG product. Because assistants filter options before a shopper reaches a retailer, brands need structured, consistent product data to be recommended.
How early should brands start holiday advertising?
In competitive categories, Circana measurement consultants recommend choosing the peak season first, then leading in with media two to four weeks before it. Starting before the traditional ad-heavy period means less competition for attention and a baseline of brand awareness when shoppers begin buying.
How should advertisers measure holiday media?
By business outcomes across channels rather than by individual channel metrics. Circana recommends connecting retail media, AI, ecommerce, in-store and creator results, and measuring beyond any single retail media network. Cross-retailer shopping rises during the holidays, so results from one network miss part of the impact.
Sources
Circana, Annual Holiday Survey, October 2025, cited in Circana's 2025 U.S. Holiday Purchase Intentions report
Circana Shopper Survey, March 2026
Circana ShopperSights U.S.
Circana social commerce data, and EMARKETER, U.S. Social Commerce Forecast 2026
Circana interviews at Cannes Lions 2026
CVS internal data, Understanding the CVS In-store Experience Research Study, March 2025
About the authors
Jonathan Dizney is VP, Global Measurement Media Consulting at Circana, where he leads a global team that connects marketing activity to business outcomes through data, advanced analytics, and modern measurement solutions. He has worked across more than 100 marketing measurement studies, including Circana's marketing mix modeling work recognized by The Drum Commerce Media Awards for Best Proof of Incrementality.
Tsvetan Tsvetkov is SVP, Head of Global Measurement Consulting at Circana, where he leads a global team that brings analytical rigor to clients' media measurement programs and turns complex findings into clear investment decisions. He has personally led hundreds of marketing mix analyses and worked with more than 100 clients across industries including consumer packaged goods, automotive, technology, and financial services.
