- Paul Gagnon
- 1 day ago
- 2 min read
Computers were the primary source of industry growth in 2025 and will be again in 2026.
CHICAGO, Jan. 6, 2026 — U.S. consumer technology sales revenue is forecast to grow 0.2% to $112 billion in 2026, following a challenged back half of 2025, according to the latest Future of Technology report from Circana, LLC. Sales revenue in the first half of 2025 grew 0.7%, but initial results indicate the second half was impacted by growing financial pressures and softened fourth-quarter demand, resulting in a projected 2.2% decline compared to the prior year.
“Late 2025 spending shows evidence of a split in consumer electronics spending patterns, with higher-income cohorts driving growth, but struggling to offset a pull-back by lower- and middle-income buyers,” said Paul Gagnon, vice president and technology industry advisor for Circana. “That spending pattern split will endure, with price elevation expected to continue through 2026.”
Consumers pulled forward their anticipated 2025 purchases into the first half of the year due to concerns about tariffs raising prices. For many consumers, financial conditions grew more challenging in the second half of the year, with higher-income cohorts sustaining spending into the second half. Demand softened in the fourth quarter as consumers focused more on essentials and pull-forward sales impacted planned second-half purchases.
Computers were the primary source of growth in 2025 and are expected to maintain that role in 2026, increasing by more than $600 million compared to 2025, though slowing considerably. Notebook and desktop computers will contribute equally to growth as consumers continue with a replacement cycle refresh, and the end of Windows 10 support will spur some additional replacement of older PCs. Tablets will be the second largest source of growth, with more than $200 million in incremental revenue this year. Additional pockets of growth in 2026 will come from innovative product categories, such as smart glasses.
Overall average prices will climb about 3% in 2026, matching the pace of growth in 2025. Some of the price elevation is due to a continued shift in product mix toward more expensive products like PCs. But more organic cost increases will also play a role, such as with a rise in the price of memory that is used in many consumer electronics products.
“Consumers remain focused on value in 2026 just as in 2025, fueled by economic uncertainty and some rising product costs,” added Gagnon. “Innovative products and a need to replace aging devices will help to offset more pragmatic spending tendencies,”
Circana’s Future of™ is a series of industry-specific forecasts and insights that incorporate Circana’s data assets, deep industry advisor expertise, macroeconomic inputs, superior technology and advanced analytic modeling techniques.
About Circana Circana is a leader in providing technology, AI, and data to fast-moving consumer packaged goods companies, durables manufacturers, and retailers seeking to optimize their businesses. Circana’s predictive analytics and technology empower clients to measure their market share, understand the underlying consumer behavior driving it, and accelerate their growth. Circana’s Liquid Data® technology platform is powered by an expansive, high-quality data set, and intelligent algorithms trained on six decades of domain expertise. With Circana, clients can take immediate action to future-proof and evolve their growth strategies amid an increasingly complex, fast-paced, and ever-changing economy.
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