- Circana
- 6 hours ago
- 2 min read
CHICAGO, May 18, 2026 – Circana LLC won "Best Proof of Incrementality" at The Drum Commerce Media Awards for its Marketing Mix Modeling approach, providing statistically validated proof of business impact beyond traditional attribution. The analysis, conducted for a leading better-for-you CPG brand, measured true causal lift and uncovered cross-channel halo effects across the total market. The work underscores the growing role of Marketing Mix Modeling in addressing the retail media measurement gap.
Historically, measurement has relied on platform-reported attribution, which can provide directional insights but cannot isolate true causal impact or capture performance across the broader market. Circana’s Marketing Mix Modeling approach addresses this gap by establishing a statistically validated counterfactual baseline to measure true incrementality. By evaluating retail media within the context of total market performance, the model captures cross-retailer and in-store halo effects and integrates media with key business drivers such as pricing, promotion, and distribution. The result is a unified, enterprise-level view of how marketing and commercial investments work together to drive growth.
The findings of the analysis revealed that retail media return on investment reached 85% of traditional marketing benchmarks. Notably, while an online retailer represented 15% of total sales, it generated 25% of total incremental impact, with 75% of that impact realized in store. Conversely, trade spending delivered materially lower incremental efficiency despite higher investment levels. By evaluating the total market rather than isolated networks, the analysis identified a 20% forward-looking growth opportunity through optimization within the brand's existing budgets.
“Retail media has become a critical investment area for brands, and with that comes the need for consistent, transparent, and outcome-based measurement,” said Cara Pratt, president, Global Retail and Media at Circana. “Our approach gives clients confidence in how their investments perform across the entire ecosystem, showing broader business outcomes, including incremental household penetration and baseline sales impact.”
“Marketers are under increasing pressure to prove the real impact of every dollar spent,” said Yeimy Garcia-Smith, senior vice president, Global Measurement Strategy at Circana. “By providing a single, trusted source of truth across media and commercial investments, we’re helping brands move from fragmented reporting to clear, defensible proof of incremental growth.”
This recognition also reflects Circana’s continued investment in advancing its Marketing Mix Modeling capabilities, including the expansion of its global measurement solutions following the acquisition of an award-winning marketing mix business. This award-winning approach is part of the wider advanced analytics work Circana delivers to support retailers and brands in optimizing their enterprise-level retail and brand investment strategies.
About Circana
Circana is a leader in providing technology, AI, and data to fast-moving consumer packaged goods companies, durables manufacturers, and retailers seeking to optimize their businesses. Circana’s predictive analytics and technology empower clients to measure their market share, understand the underlying consumer behavior driving it, and accelerate their growth. Circana’s Liquid Data® technology platform is powered by an expansive, high-quality data set and intelligent algorithms trained on six decades of domain expertise. With Circana, clients can take immediate action to future-proof and evolve their growth strategies amid an increasingly complex, fast-paced, and ever-changing economy. Learn more at circana.com.
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