CHICAGO, November 4, 2026 — U.S. consumers are heading into the holiday season with growing concerns about the economy, yet most remain committed to participating in the celebrations and traditions that matter most, according to the 2026 U.S. Holiday Purchase Intentions Study from Circana, LLC. While economic sentiment has weakened compared to a year ago, shoppers continue to prioritize holiday participation, suggesting they are adapting to economic pressures rather than retreating from holiday spending. The findings point to a widening disconnect between consumers’ economic outlooks and their determination to preserve seasonal traditions.
Consumers’ perceptions of the economy continue to deteriorate, with 57% rating current conditions as fair or poor and 49% saying they plan to spend less because their economic situations have changed or remain uncertain. Yet, those concerns are not translating into a wholesale pullback from holiday participation. Instead, consumers are becoming increasingly intentional in how they manage holiday spending. Nearly three-quarters of holiday shoppers plan to adopt money-saving behaviors such as purchasing more items on sale (30%), redeeming rewards points (19%), buying more store-brand products (18%), and using loyalty programs more (18%). More than half say they have already taken steps to prepare for holiday spending, including limiting impulse purchases (23%), scaling back purchases earlier in the year (19%), buying gifts throughout the year (18%), and setting aside dedicated holiday funds (17%).
At the same time, consumers are not eliminating discretionary spending altogether. The study found that holiday shoppers who rate their personal financial situations as “fair” or “poor” are more likely than those in better financial standing to plan to purchase gifts for themselves, highlighting consumers’ desires to preserve moments of enjoyment and personal reward even amid financial pressures.
“The most striking finding is the tension between economic sentiment and consumer behavior,” said Kiara Barrett, head of global thought leadership at Circana. “Consumers may not feel better about the economy, but they are taking deliberate steps to manage uncertainty. They're creating flexibility in their budgets while still making room for the traditions, celebrations, and occasional treats that make the holiday season meaningful. Consumers aren't abandoning the holidays. They're becoming much more deliberate about how they afford them.”
The findings suggest that understanding consumer sentiment may be just as important as understanding consumer spending. While shoppers remain highly value-conscious, the research indicates they are seeking balance rather than simply cutting back. Consumers are looking for opportunities to save where possible while protecting the purchases, experiences, and traditions they value most.
For retailers and manufacturers, that means success will depend not only on delivering value, but on helping consumers feel confident that the purchases they choose justify a place in increasingly scrutinized household budgets.
About Circana
Circana is a leader in providing technology, AI, and data to fast-moving consumer packaged goods companies, durables manufacturers, and retailers seeking to optimize their businesses. Circana’s predictive analytics and technology empower clients to measure their market share, understand the underlying consumer behavior driving it, and accelerate their growth. Circana’s Liquid Data® technology platform is powered by an expansive, high-quality data set, and intelligent algorithms trained on six decades of domain expertise. With Circana, clients can take immediate action to future-proof and evolve their growth strategies amid an increasingly complex, fast-paced, and ever-changing economy.
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