For the last several years, produce sales have been relatively flat despite economic, supply, and consumer-related headwinds and tailwinds. Since mid-July 2026, sales are especially underperforming, with 8 of 10 primary shoppers citing food safety concerns that are changing their buying behavior.
Unlike other consumer goods, the produce industry has largely focused on maximizing supply and fulfilling customer orders with a secondary eye to consumer demand. Yet today’s produce market was shaped by a host of pressures even before Cyclospora entered the collective consumer consciousness, influenced by macroeconomic circumstances, evolving lifestyles and attitudes, and channel shifts. These pressures have impacted fresh fruits and vegetables just as much, if not more, than any other retail item or foodservice menu. The recent sales dip requires the path forward to include both an understanding of consumer demand and the need to optimize supply.
Stakeholders like brands, retailers, and foodservice operators can navigate the current moment and determine where the green shoots are coming from and how to cut through the weeds, based on trends at home and away from home. A recent webinar hosted by Circana in collaboration with the International Fresh Produce Association (IFPA) explored current market dynamics and implications for the short- and long-term future.
Below are some takeaways that include both disruptions and opportunities across categories and channels.
Value-fueled Intentionality
In many ways, consumers remain constrained due to challenges such as lingering economic uncertainty and elevated living costs. Circana’s 2026 Eating Patterns in America report revealed just over one-half of consumers (51%) believe the overall economy will get worse in the next 12 months, and about one-half reported that their financial situation has not changed compared to a year ago. A personalized economy is giving way to personalized value, as consumers balance budget constraints with a desire for quality experiences and self-care, including health and wellness. While these are healthy and value-oriented foods, per capita consumption of vegetables continues to decline after a COVID-era peak. There is a fierce fight for stomach share in the increasingly crowded health-and-wellness space, so driving demand is extremely important.
In this climate, value includes more than price. Circana insights reveal that consumers are going to more stores and buying fewer things per store. These quicker trips tended to benefit the perimeter produce section, at least until the summer 2026 food safety outbreak. As consumers shift their buying habits, time is also part of the value equation, as shoppers look for convenience beyond packaging and increasingly embrace e-commerce and technology to find and purchase foods, including fresh produce.
The Trust Factor
Food quality and safety are evergreen issues, but they have been especially top of mind in 2026. During this summer’s highly publicized food safety outbreak, a Circana survey found that 83% of consumers heard about recalls or safety concerns related to fresh food as of early August. Meanwhile, IFPA reported that about one in six consumers generally avoided vegetables or fresh produce in the peak weeks of the Cyclospora outbreak and accompanying media coverage.
Circana data confirms that produce declines contributed to some softness in the retail and foodservice markets over the summer. Between July 19 and Aug. 23, retail produce sales came in $683 million under the same period in 2025, while 312 million fewer pounds were sold versus the prior-year period. Away from home, insights show that fresh lettuce and salad blend pound shipments to foodservice operators declined 8% in July; for context, lettuce and salad blends were already declining an average of 3% in 2026 prior to the summer’s foodborne illness outbreak and recalls.
As industry players work to rebuild trust, messaging is crucial. Per a recent Circana survey, nearly one-half (47%) of consumers said that clear communication about product safety would boost their confidence in purchasing products in affected fresh produce categories. A similar number (45%) said that having information about specific impacted products would increase their confidence, while 37% cited improved traceability and sourcing information. Understanding market drivers through a complete view of retail, foodservice, and consumption trends helps suppliers and retailers foster trust, especially through channels that younger consumers use, like social media.
A Healthy Dose of Choice
While the produce industry has faced recent disruptions, those who provide and sell fresh produce are also pursuing growth by tracking and responding to other market demands. For example, as Circana’s Eating Patterns in America report shows, health and functionality are key purchase drivers, leading to greater interest in foods that support fiber, portion control, and overall well-being.
Fiber is one area of health and wellness where produce can shine. Circana finds that the average adult is consuming 14 grams of fiber today, below the recommended range of 28 to 34 grams. At the same time, 36% of consumers indicate that they are seeking more fiber in their diets, up from 33% a year ago. These trends create opportunities for produce brands to help fill the fiber gap.
There are other areas where fresh produce providers can compete not just against offering in their category but in other health and wellness segments. Consumers looking for a high-fiber, satiating snack can opt for cut-up apples or a fiber-fortified drink, for instance.
In this moment, suppliers and retailers can bring back depth and cross-shopping and target heavy users to boost sales. Given the fact that 15 of the top 25 most frequently purchased items are in the product category, consumers are already drawn to the fresh perimeter. In foodservice, although total produce is down, demand for most categories is growing, revealing growth potential.
For deeper insights on macro trends, consumer sentiments and purchase behaviors, and positive paths forward, click here:
