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25-34-year-olds are

21%

more likely to drink pumpkin coffees than the average consumer

Quick Insight

It's that time of year again... pumpkin spice is back. 🎃☕

 

According to Circana, 25–34-year-olds are the most likely to enjoy pumpkin-flavored coffee, proving the season's signature sip is going strong.

 

Are you team “too early” or “right on time”?

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Dictionary Term

Bayesian Statistics

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TERM

Bayesian Statistics

A statistical approach that updates beliefs with data.

Definition

Bayesian statistics combine prior information with observed data to estimate parameters.

How to Calculate

Specify a prior, define a likelihood, and compute a posterior distribution.

Why it Matters

Useful for small samples and hierarchical models in CPG.

Key Advantages

Handles uncertainty and partial pooling well.

Example

Estimate lift for many small SKUs with a shared prior.

Use it to

Apply probabilistic models that update beliefs as new data arrives to estimate parameters with uncertainty. Use posterior distributions to compare scenarios and make decisions that account for variance rather than single-point estimates.

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