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TERM
Holdout Test
An experiment with a control group that gets no treatment.
Definition
A holdout test withholds a promotion or media from a matched group to measure true lift.
How to Calculate
Split markets or stores into test and holdout, then compare outcomes.
Why it Matters
Removes bias from simple before and after views.
Key Advantages
Credible evidence for retailer and finance.
Example
Two DMAs got no ad as holdout.
Use it to
Measure performance of a tested action against an untreated group to isolate true causal impact. Use the comparison to validate whether observed changes come from the intervention or from underlying trend.
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