An SMB Playbook for Leakage Analysis and Recovery in 90 Days

SMBs Observe the Same Leakage Analysis that Big Brands Do. But They're Doing It on a Budget.

For growing CPG brands, leakage isn't just a buzzword — it’s often the reason behind missed quarterly targets. Whether it’s trial buyers who don’t return, loyal shoppers splitting their purchases with competitors, or category spend shifting to other retailers, leakage translates directly into lost revenue. 

Here’s the breakdown: 

• Brand-switch leakage: When a shopper buys your product once but chooses a competitor the next time.

• Retailer-switch leakage: When your loyal customers keep buying the category but start shopping at a different retailer.

Both types of leakage hurt growth, but both can be fixed with the right tools and insights.

This playbook is designed for SMBs, recognizing the realities of limited resources, lean teams, and the need to deliver results quickly. It leverages Liquid Data Go, a cost-effective, self-serve data solution that provides consumer insights calibrated to POS data from over 1,100 U.S. retail partners.

What Leakage Analysis Measures and Why it Matters to SMBs

Sales figures alone rarely show the full story. Revenue might look stable, or even slightly up, while significant losses are happening beneath the surface, including for the following reasons:

• Buyer count is shrinking as fewer trial buyers are returning.

• Retailer performance appears stable, but growth at one retailer is masking losses at another.

• Promotions temporarily lift sales and disguise weakening loyalty.

• Average spend per buyer stays steady, but the number of households buying is shrinking.

Without a deeper diagnostic, leakage hides in plain sight, making it impossible to understand where shoppers are going or how to bring them back. Leakage analysis exposes these hidden shifts by showing how consumer spending shifts across brands, retailers, and channels.

Three Leakage Signals to Consider Tracking Monthly

1. Trial-to-repeat conversion

    

   • What it shows: Whether new buyers are sticking with your brand or leaving after one purchase.

   • Why you should care: SMBs often invest heavily in winning trial buyers, but without strong trial‑to‑repeat conversion, marketing dollars are wasted. 

   • Questions to ask: Are trial buyers returning within 30-60 days? Which retailers or regions are losing the newest buyers?

     
     

2. Repeat frequency and purchase interval by retailer

   
   

   • What it shows: How often loyal buyers return, and whether they’re shifting to other retailers.

   • Why you should care: Even if your base buyers love your brand, retailer-switch leakage means you lose trips when they shop elsewhere. 

   • Questions to ask: Are repeat intervals getting longer? Which retailers are gaining from those trips?

   
   

3. Share of wallet vs. competitors

   
   

   • What it shows: How much of each household’s category spend you capture, and which competitors are gaining when you lose.

   • Why you should care: Share‑of‑wallet erosion often happens long before sales decline. If buyers spend more with competitors, your growth is at risk.

   • Key questions to ask: Who wins when you lose? Which competitors are gaining a larger share of your buyers’ wallets?

Additional Metrics to Layer In

• Non-converted shoppers: How many households buy the category at your retailer but not your brand? A clear view into missed conversion opportunities.

• Promo lift vs. retention lift: Are promotions driving short-term gains or building lasting loyalty?  

Why Traditional CPG Analytics Fall Short for Small to Mid-Sized Brands

Static reports and basic analytics often explain what’s sold in a category, but they rarely explain whether shoppers split their basket or abandon after one trial. Without insight into cross-purchase patterns, same-basket products, or share of wallet shifts, leakage remains invisible.

As buying paths fragment across brick‑and‑mortar, e‑commerce, and marketplaces, SMBs need granular diagnostics that tie cross‑purchase and same‑basket signals to conversion and repeat outcomes. This level of detail shows where spending shifts within the category, and which recovery strategies - price, promo, assortment, placement, or retail media - will actually bring buyers back.

How SMBs Can Diagnose and Recover Lost Sales and Buyers

Liquid Data Go provides SMBs with enterprise‑grade insights in a cost-effective, easy-to-use solution:

• See where dollars leak: Quantify how much category spend is leaking across retailers, channels, and ecommerce. 

• Isolate the type of leakage: Separate brand‑switch leakage from retailer‑switch leakage using trial-to-repeat conversion, repeat frequency, and share‑of‑wallet metrics – grounded in census POS data from 1,100+ U.S. retail partners and reporting trusted by 11 of the top 15 U.S. retailers.

• Diagnose root causes at item level: SKU-level views reveal assortment gaps, price mismatches, and same-basket signals pulling spend to competitors.

• Prioritize fastest recovery moves. Link leakage insights to retail and media activation to target the stores, segments, and households most likely to repatriate trips and dollars. 

The 30/60/90‑day Leakage Recovery Plan for Lean Teams

By day 30: Diagnose and design

1. Pull a leakage tree and share‑of‑wallet read; isolate the top two leakage paths: 

   1. *Brand switch (your trial didn’t stick). 

   2. Retailer switch (category spend shifted to a competitor banner)

2. Create conversion cohorts (first‑time, 2–3x buyers, loyalists) and pinpoint where churn starts.

*Note: Brand switch analysis is available as part of Unify+ subscription or through custom ad hoc reporting, it is not currently included in Liquid Data Go.

By day 60: Test and target

1. Run micro‑promos in highest‑leak stores/regions; adjust price/pack for observed elasticity.

2. Retarget “one‑and‑done” buyers with trial‑to‑repeat offers; bundle adjacent SKUs visible in same‑basket data.

3. Track repeat interval and retention lift vs. promo lift. Keep what sustains.

   
   

By day 90: Scale and sell‑in

1. Roll out the best performer across 2–3 retailer partners; strengthen your retailer pitch with test results.

2. Request facings or retail‑media funding using data on incremental trips and household spend you re‑captured.

3. Schedule a quarterly leakage review to keep momentum.

Fast Fixes: Marketplace and Pure‑play E‑commerce Leakage

If you don't have a large e‑comm ops team, focus on these plays:

• Hero SKUs + right packs for pure‑play; align price/pack to your top brick‑and‑mortar partners to avoid cross‑channel cannibalization.

• Retarget lapsers from marketplaces to buy-online-pick-up-instore (BOPIS) or a priority retailer; use household segments where you see post‑trial churn.

• Monitor channel split and 1P vs. marketplace dynamics; adjust bids where leakage is growing fastest.

Turning Consumer Insights into Recovery Strategies

Leakage analysis is most valuable when it points directly to action. Here’s how SMBs can turn insights into results:

Boost Retention Through Retailer Reviews

If you notice strong conversion at a key retailer but declining repeat purchases and shoppers are switching to competitors, this highlights a loss in category growth. Use this insight to advocate for better shelf placement or promotional support by showing the potential sales upside of improving retention.

Target High-Risk Shoppers with Marketing Strategies

Leakage data may reveal that first-time buyers drop off after one purchase or that certain shopper segments switch brands or channels on their next trip. This indicates a buyer conversion issue. Marketing teams can use this data to retarget high-risk shoppers and focus their budget on areas where retention gains will have the most impact.

Recover Lost Sales with Pricing and Promo Adjustments

If share of wallet is decreasing sharply in specific retailers or regions after a price change or missed promotion, it signals price sensitivity or competitive pressure-- not weak demand. Commercial teams can adjust pricing or promotion locally to recover lost spend and improve performance in those areas. By acting on these insights, SMBs can address leakage at its source and drive sustainable growth.

Act Before Leakage Turns into Loss

Leakage doesn’t happen overnight – it builds gradually through subtle shifts in buyer behavior, channel mix, and competitive pressure. For SMBs, every leaked trip weakens customer loyalty, reduces lifetime value, and limits opportunities to prove value to retail partners.

Leakage analysis gives SMBs the visibility to understand where dollars are going, what’s driving the shift, and how to recover spend before it turns into long-term loss.

Ready to reclaim your buyers? Start your 30/60/90-day plan with Liquid Data Go today.

*Note: Brand switch analysis is available as part of Unify+ subscription or through custom ad hoc reporting, it is not currently included in Liquid Data Go.